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Application of Bayesian Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Antiviral Treatments in Chronic Hepatitis B

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  • Hua Zhang
  • Mingdong Huo
  • Jianqian Chao
  • Pei Liu

Abstract

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major problem for public health; timely antiviral treatment can significantly prevent the progression of liver damage from HBV by slowing down or stopping the virus from reproducing. In the study we applied Bayesian approach to cost-effectiveness analysis, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for the relevant evidence input into the model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of entecavir (ETV) and lamivudine (LVD) therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in Jiangsu, China, thus providing information to the public health system in the CHB therapy. Methods: Eight-stage Markov model was developed, a hypothetical cohort of 35-year-old HBeAg-positive patients with CHB was entered into the model. Treatment regimens were LVD100mg daily and ETV 0.5 mg daily. The transition parameters were derived either from systematic reviews of the literature or from previous economic studies. The outcome measures were life-years, quality-adjusted lifeyears (QALYs), and expected costs associated with the treatments and disease progression. For the Bayesian models all the analysis was implemented by using WinBUGS version 1.4. Results: Expected cost, life expectancy, QALYs decreased with age. Cost-effectiveness increased with age. Expected cost of ETV was less than LVD, while life expectancy and QALYs were higher than that of LVD, ETV strategy was more cost-effective. Costs and benefits of the Monte Carlo simulation were very close to the results of exact form among the group, but standard deviation of each group indicated there was a big difference between individual patients. Conclusions: Compared with lamivudine, entecavir is the more cost-effective option. CHB patients should accept antiviral treatment as soon as possible as the lower age the more cost-effective. Monte Carlo simulation obtained costs and effectiveness distribution, indicate our Markov model is of good robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • Hua Zhang & Mingdong Huo & Jianqian Chao & Pei Liu, 2016. "Application of Bayesian Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Antiviral Treatments in Chronic Hepatitis B," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0161936
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0161936
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicola J. Cooper & Keith R. Abrams & Alex J. Sutton & David Turner & Paul C. Lambert, 2003. "A Bayesian approach to Markov modelling in cost‐effectiveness analyses: application to taxane use in advanced breast cancer," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(3), pages 389-405, October.
    2. David Veenstra & Sean Sullivan & Lauren Clarke & Uche Iloeje & Eskinder Tafesse & Adrian Bisceglie & Kris Kowdley & Robert Gish, 2007. "Cost Effectiveness of Entecavir versus Lamivudine with Adefovir Salvage in HBeAg-Positive Chronic Hepatitis B," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 963-977, November.
    3. Frank A. Sonnenberg & J. Robert Beck, 1993. "Markov Models in Medical Decision Making," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 13(4), pages 322-338, December.
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