Drug-Induced- or Rheumatic- Valvular Heart Disease in Patients Exposed to Benfluorex?

There is a risk of misdiagnosis between benfluorex-induced VHD and acute rheumatic fever (ARF)-related VHD due to common characteristics of both etiologies. We aimed at estimating the probability for a patient exposed to benfluorex presenting with VHD to have, at the same time, a history of ARF-related VHD. Such epidemiological approach could help at reducing the risk of misdiagnosis. We used INSEE data and related literature as well as various modeling hypotheses to drive and test a formula for calculating the probability of a patient presenting with VHD and a history of benfluorex intake to have a prior history of ARF-related VHD. Different scenarios were estimated by a Markov model on the life course of people born in France between 1940 and 1960. Sensitivity analyses were performed under these scenarios. According to the different scenarios and gender, the probability that a patient born between 1940 and 1960 presenting with VHD and a history of benfluorex intake would have had a prior history of ARF-related VHD varied from 0.2% to 2.7%. The probabilities by the year of birth were as follows: 0.8%–2.7% for a patient born in 1940,