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Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks

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  • Junghwan Jin
  • Jinsoo Kim

Abstract

Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Junghwan Jin & Jinsoo Kim, 2015. "Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0142064
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    2. Oleksandr Castello & Marina Resta, 2023. "A Machine-Learning-Based Approach for Natural Gas Futures Curve Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Shovon Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty & Sunny Kumar Singh, 2023. "Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geopolitical uncertainties," Papers 2401.00249, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    4. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Mohammadali Mehralizadeh, 2016. "Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Junghwan Jin & Seweon Cheon & Jungbae Lee & Sanghwan Lee & Jinsoo Kim, 2018. "Economic impact of overseas coal bed methane development project on Korean economy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(6), pages 905-918, September.
    6. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.

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