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Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Guoqi Li
  • Daxuan Zhao
  • Yi Xu
  • Shyh-Hao Kuo
  • Hai-Yan Xu
  • Nan Hu
  • Guangshe Zhao
  • Christopher Monterola

Abstract

In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country’s population based on an “age-structured population model”; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an “individual household size model”; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a “total household size model”. The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country’s population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Guoqi Li & Daxuan Zhao & Yi Xu & Shyh-Hao Kuo & Hai-Yan Xu & Nan Hu & Guangshe Zhao & Christopher Monterola, 2015. "Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0137324
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0137324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Swanson & George Hough, 2012. "An Evaluation of Persons per Household (PPH) Estimates Generated by the American Community Survey: A Demographic Perspective," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(2), pages 235-266, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Hai-Yan & Kuo, Shyh-Hao & Li, Guoqi & Legara, Erika Fille T. & Zhao, Daxuan & Monterola, Christopher P., 2016. "Generalized Cross Entropy Method for estimating joint distribution from incomplete information," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 162-172.

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