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Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

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  • Edwin C Yuan
  • David L Alderson
  • Sean Stromberg
  • Jean M Carlson

Abstract

Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that enables us to calculate the complete probability distribution for the final epidemic size in a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal allocations of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting populations. We compare the stochastic solution to results obtained for the traditional, deterministic SIR model. For intermediate quantities of vaccine, the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin C Yuan & David L Alderson & Sean Stromberg & Jean M Carlson, 2015. "Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0115826
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115826
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    Cited by:

    1. Juliano Marçal Lopes & Coralys Colon Morales & Michelle Alvarado & Vidal Augusto Z. C. Melo & Leonardo Batista Paiva & Eduardo Mario Dias & Panos M. Pardalos, 2022. "Optimization methods for large-scale vaccine supply chains: a rapid review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 316(1), pages 699-721, September.
    2. Westerink-Duijzer, L.E. & van Jaarsveld, W.L. & Wallinga, J. & Dekker, R., 2015. "Dose-optimal vaccine allocation over multiple populations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Chantal Nguyen & Jean M Carlson, 2016. "Optimizing Real-Time Vaccine Allocation in a Stochastic SIR Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Westerink-Duijzer, L.E. & van Jaarsveld, W.L. & Wallinga, J. & Dekker, R., 2016. "The most efficient critical vaccination coverage and its equivalence with maximizing the herd effect," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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