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Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship: A Fractional Cointegration Approach

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  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària
  • David R Heres
  • L Catalina Martínez-Hernández

Abstract

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

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  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & David R Heres & L Catalina Martínez-Hernández, 2014. "Long-Memory and the Sea Level-Temperature Relationship: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-12, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0113439
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113439
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    1. Anny Cazenave & Habib-Boubacar Dieng & Benoit Meyssignac & Karina von Schuckmann & Bertrand Decharme & Etienne Berthier, 2014. "The rate of sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 358-361, May.
    2. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Temperature in the Iberian Peninsula: Trend, seasonality, and heterogeneity," Papers 2406.14145, arXiv.org.
    2. González-Rivera, Gloria & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2023. "Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37968, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

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