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Causality and Cointegration Analysis between Macroeconomic Variables and the Bovespa

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  • Fabiano Mello da Silva
  • Daniel Arruda Coronel
  • Kelmara Mendes Vieira

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabiano Mello da Silva & Daniel Arruda Coronel & Kelmara Mendes Vieira, 2014. "Causality and Cointegration Analysis between Macroeconomic Variables and the Bovespa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0089765
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javier Hidalgo, 2000. "Nonparametric Test for Causality with Long-Range Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1465-1490, November.
    2. Hidalgo, Javier, 2000. "Nonparametric test for causality with long-range dependence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6866, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
    5. Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tifa Noer Amelia, 2016. "Causality test between exchange rate, inflation rate and Stock Price Index in Southeast Asia," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 2(2), pages 101-106.

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