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Remotely Sensed Rice Yield Prediction Using Multi-Temporal NDVI Data Derived from NOAA's-AVHRR

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Listed:
  • Jingfeng Huang
  • Xiuzhen Wang
  • Xinxing Li
  • Hanqin Tian
  • Zhuokun Pan

Abstract

Grain-yield prediction using remotely sensed data have been intensively studied in wheat and maize, but such information is limited in rice, barley, oats and soybeans. The present study proposes a new framework for rice-yield prediction, which eliminates the influence of the technology development, fertilizer application, and management improvement and can be used for the development and implementation of provincial rice-yield predictions. The technique requires the collection of remotely sensed data over an adequate time frame and a corresponding record of the region's crop yields. Longer normalized-difference-vegetation-index (NDVI) time series are preferable to shorter ones for the purposes of rice-yield prediction because the well-contrasted seasons in a longer time series provide the opportunity to build regression models with a wide application range. A regression analysis of the yield versus the year indicated an annual gain in the rice yield of 50 to 128 kg ha−1. Stepwise regression models for the remotely sensed rice-yield predictions have been developed for five typical rice-growing provinces in China. The prediction models for the remotely sensed rice yield indicated that the influences of the NDVIs on the rice yield were always positive. The association between the predicted and observed rice yields was highly significant without obvious outliers from 1982 to 2004. Independent validation found that the overall relative error is approximately 5.82%, and a majority of the relative errors were less than 5% in 2005 and 2006, depending on the study area. The proposed models can be used in an operational context to predict rice yields at the provincial level in China. The methodologies described in the present paper can be applied to any crop for which a sufficient time series of NDVI data and the corresponding historical yield information are available, as long as the historical yield increases significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingfeng Huang & Xiuzhen Wang & Xinxing Li & Hanqin Tian & Zhuokun Pan, 2013. "Remotely Sensed Rice Yield Prediction Using Multi-Temporal NDVI Data Derived from NOAA's-AVHRR," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-13, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0070816
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0070816
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    Cited by:

    1. Awais Karamat & Abdul Rehman, 2019. "Estimation of net rice production for the fiscal year 2019 using historical datasets," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 1(2), pages 47-65, March.
    2. Dhehibi, Boubaker & Telleria, Roberto & Aw-Hassan, Aden & Hatem Mohamed, Saad & Ziadat, Feras & Wu, Weicheng, 2015. "Impacts of Soil Salinity on the Productivity of Al-Musayyeb Small Farms in Iraq: An Examination of Technical, Economic, and Allocative, Efficiency," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14.
    3. Yibo Luan & Wenquan Zhu & Xuefeng Cui & Günther Fischer & Terence P. Dawson & Peijun Shi & Zhenke Zhang, 2019. "Cropland yield divergence over Africa and its implication for mitigating food insecurity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 707-734, June.
    4. Emerick, Kyle, 2018. "Trading frictions in Indian village economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 32-56.
    5. Ayesha Behzad & Usman Rafique, 2019. "Estimation of Net Primary Production of Rice Crop using CASA model in Nankana Sahib," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 1(1), pages 30-46, February.

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