IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0069935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

Author

Listed:
  • Shaun Scholes
  • Madhavi Bajekal
  • Paul Norman
  • Martin O’Flaherty
  • Nathaniel Hawkins
  • Mika Kivimäki
  • Simon Capewell
  • Rosalind Raine

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios. Methods and Results: Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACTSEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains. Conclusions: CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun Scholes & Madhavi Bajekal & Paul Norman & Martin O’Flaherty & Nathaniel Hawkins & Mika Kivimäki & Simon Capewell & Rosalind Raine, 2013. "Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-1, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0069935
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0069935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069935
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0069935&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0069935?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosen, Allison B. & Stewart, Susan T. & Cutler, David M., 2009. "Forecasting the Effects of Obesity and Smoking on U.S. Life Expectancy," Scholarly Articles 5344184, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Sauerbrei, W. & Meier-Hirmer, C. & Benner, A. & Royston, P., 2006. "Multivariable regression model building by using fractional polynomials: Description of SAS, STATA and R programs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3464-3485, August.
    3. Goodarz Danaei & Eric B Rimm & Shefali Oza & Sandeep C Kulkarni & Christopher J L Murray & Majid Ezzati, 2010. "The Promise of Prevention: The Effects of Four Preventable Risk Factors on National Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Disparities by Race and County in the United States," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Madhavi Bajekal & Shaun Scholes & Hande Love & Nathaniel Hawkins & Martin O'Flaherty & Rosalind Raine & Simon Capewell, 2012. "Analysing Recent Socioeconomic Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England, 2000–2007: A Population Modelling Study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hwa-Kyung Lim & Young-Ho Khang, 2019. "Quantifying the impact of reducing socioeconomic inequalities in modifiable risk factors on mortality and mortality inequalities in South Korea," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(4), pages 585-594, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederick, Chad & Hammersmith, Anna & Gilderbloom, John Hans, 2019. "Putting ‘place’ in its place: Comparing place-based factors in interurban analyses of life expectancy in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 148-155.
    2. Shima Hamidi & Reid Ewing & Zaria Tatalovich & James B. Grace & David Berrigan, 2018. "Associations between Urban Sprawl and Life Expectancy in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-11, April.
    3. Andrew J. Mirelman & Miqdad Asaria & Bryony Dawkins & Susan Griffin & Richard Cookson & Peter Berman, 2020. "Fairer Decisions, Better Health for All: Health Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Paul Revill & Marc Suhrcke & Rodrigo Moreno-Serra & Mark Sculpher (ed.), Global Health Economics Shaping Health Policy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, chapter 4, pages 99-132, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Tansel, Aysit & Karao?lan, Deniz, 2016. "The Causal Effect of Education on Health Behaviors: Evidence from Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 10020, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Tatjana Miljkovic & Saleem Shaik & Dragan Miljkovic, 2017. "Redefining standards for body mass index of the US population based on BRFSS data using mixtures," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 197-211, January.
    6. Strasak, Alexander M. & Umlauf, Nikolaus & Pfeiffer, Ruth M. & Lang, Stefan, 2011. "Comparing penalized splines and fractional polynomials for flexible modelling of the effects of continuous predictor variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1540-1551, April.
    7. Haomiao Li & Yingchun Chen & Hongxia Gao & Jingjing Chang & Dai Su & Shihan Lei & Di Jiang & Xiaomei Hu & Min Tan & Zhifang Chen, 2019. "Effect of an Integrated Payment System on the Direct Economic Burden and Readmission of Rural Cerebral Infarction Inpatients: Evidence from Anhui, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Karaoglan, Deniz & Tansel, Aysit, 2017. "Determinants of Obesity in Turkey: A Quantile Regression Analysis from a Developing Country," MPRA Paper 76250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shima Hamidi, 2020. "Urban sprawl and the emergence of food deserts in the USA," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(8), pages 1660-1675, June.
    10. Jessica Ho & Irma Elo, 2013. "The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 545-568, April.
    11. Alla Koblyakova & Michael White, 2017. "Supply driven mortgage choice," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1194-1210, April.
    12. Aysıt Tansel & Deniz Karaoğlan, 2019. "The Effect of Education on Health Behaviors and Obesity in Turkey: Instrumental Variable Estimates from a Developing Country," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 31(5), pages 1416-1448, December.
    13. Daniel Rainham & Rory Cantwell & Timothy Jason, 2013. "Nature Appropriation and Associations with Population Health in Canada’s Largest Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Chris Kypridemos & Piotr Bandosz & Graeme L Hickey & Maria Guzman-Castillo & Kirk Allen & Iain Buchan & Simon Capewell & Martin O’Flaherty, 2015. "Quantifying the Contribution of Statins to the Decline in Population Mean Cholesterol by Socioeconomic Group in England 1991 - 2012: A Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Lily O’Hara & Jane Taylor, 2018. "What’s Wrong With the ‘War on Obesity?’ A Narrative Review of the Weight-Centered Health Paradigm and Development of the 3C Framework to Build Critical Competency for a Paradigm Shift," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, May.
    16. Sigríður Þ. Eiðsdóttir & Álfgeir L. Kristjánsson & Inga D. Sigfúsdóttir & Carol E. Garber & John P. Allegrante, 2010. "Trends in Body Mass Index among Icelandic Adolescents and Young Adults from 1992 to 2007," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-17, May.
    17. Chad Frederick, 2022. "Economic Sustainability and ‘Missing Middle Housing’: Associations between Housing Stock Diversity and Unemployment in Mid-Size U.S. Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Hui Zheng & Jonathan Dirlam, 2016. "The Body Mass Index-Mortality Link across the Life Course: Two Selection Biases and Their Effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    19. Kulhánová, Ivana & Hoffmann, Rasmus & Judge, Ken & Looman, Caspar W.N. & Eikemo, Terje A. & Bopp, Matthias & Deboosere, Patrick & Leinsalu, Mall & Martikainen, Pekka & Rychtaříková, Jitka & Wojtyniak,, 2014. "Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: Evidence from 21 European populations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 142-149.
    20. Deniz Karaoglan & Aysit Tansel, 2018. "Determinants of Body Mass Index in Turkey: A Quantile Regression Analysis from a Middle Income Country," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0069935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.