HIV Incidence and Predictors Associated with Retention in a Cohort of Men Who have Sex with Men in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China

Background: The study was to investigate the incidence of HIV-1 and related factors, as well as predictors associated with retention in a cohort study among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. A carefully designed 12-month prospective cohort study was conducted. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 278 sero-negative MSM were recruited and followed up for 12 months starting from May, 2008. Participants were tested for HIV-1 at baseline, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up visits. Questionnaire interviews were conducted to collect information. The retention rate and HIV incidence were analyzed as functions of demographic and behavioral variables. Risk factors were identified by estimating the relative risks (RR) and respective 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a Poisson regression model, univariate and multivariate analyses and risk factors analyses. 71 (25.5%) and 45 (16.2%) of the 278 participants were retained at the 6-month and 12-month follow-up visits respectively. The incidence rates of HIV-1 were 5.65 and 6.67 per 100 person years (PY) respectively. Both having received condoms and having received lubricant were negatively associated with HIV sero-conversion at the 12 months’ follow-up. Predictors associated with 12-month retention rate include Yangzhou residency (RR = 0.471, 95%CI: 0.275∼0.807, P = 0.006), having received condoms (RR = 0.065, 95%CI: 0.007∼0.572, P = 0.014), and having received VCTs (RR = 0.093, 95%CI: 0.010∼0.818, P = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance: The incidence of HIV-1 among MSM in Yangzhou is relatively high and effective interventions are needed urgently. More attention should be focused on maintaining a higher retention rate.