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Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

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  • Jonathan A Hare
  • Mark J Wuenschel
  • Matthew E Kimball

Abstract

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan A Hare & Mark J Wuenschel & Matthew E Kimball, 2012. "Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0052294
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0052294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Derek P. Tittensor & Camilo Mora & Walter Jetz & Heike K. Lotze & Daniel Ricard & Edward Vanden Berghe & Boris Worm, 2010. "Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa," Nature, Nature, vol. 466(7310), pages 1098-1101, August.
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