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Minding Impacting Events in a Model of Stochastic Variance

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  • Sílvio M Duarte Queirós
  • Evaldo M F Curado
  • Fernando D Nobre

Abstract

We introduce a generalization of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold, , and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers . In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterized by large values of the Hurst exponent (), which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Sílvio M Duarte Queirós & Evaldo M F Curado & Fernando D Nobre, 2011. "Minding Impacting Events in a Model of Stochastic Variance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0018149
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018149
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