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Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

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  • Nuno A M Araújo
  • José S Andrade Jr
  • Hans J Herrmann

Abstract

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno A M Araújo & José S Andrade Jr & Hans J Herrmann, 2010. "Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-5, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0012446
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012446
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    Cited by:

    1. Raúl Jiménez & Manuel Hidalgo, 2014. "Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Ricardo Troncoso Sepúlveda, 2019. "Estimación del voto estratégico en elecciones parlamentarias chilenas 2013," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 27(1), pages 169-184, February.
    3. Cardoso, M. & Souza, J.T.G. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2023. "Scaling laws from Brazilian state election results point out that, the candidate’s chance to win increases by investing more campaign efforts in smaller electorates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    4. Anghel Negriu & Cyrille Piatecki, 2012. "On the performance of voting systems in spatial voting simulations," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 7(1), pages 63-77, May.
    5. Braha, Dan & de Aguiar, Marcus A. M., 2018. "Voting contagion: Modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections," SocArXiv mzxnr, Center for Open Science.
    6. Hygor Piaget M Melo & Saulo D S Reis & André A Moreira & Hernán A Makse & José S Andrade Jr., 2018. "The price of a vote: Diseconomy in proportional elections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Hygor P M Melo & Nuno A M Araújo & José S Andrade Jr., 2019. "Fundraising and vote distribution: A non-equilibrium statistical approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-9, October.
    8. Cardoso, M. & Afonso, L.H.D. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2024. "Simplified model relating blank and null votes to voter turnout from Brazilian state elections results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 645(C).

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