Prevention and control of dengue and chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 –December 2017). Methodology/Principal findings: We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price. Conclusions/Significance: Insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases. Author summary: Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at controlling either of these diseases, it is important to consider the potential effects on both diseases, as an intervention that reduces the mosquito population will reduce the spread of both diseases. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the following interventions: residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup dengue vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. In all vaccination scenarios, we considered testing for previous exposure to dengue. We found that insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. While the dengue vaccine was effective in preventing cases and deaths, costs of diagnostic testing and vaccination must decrease for dengue vaccination to be considered cost-effective.