Control of snakebite envenoming: A mathematical modeling study

A mathematical model is designed to assess the impact of some interventional strategies for curtailing the burden of snakebite envenoming in a community. The model is fitted with real data set. Numerical simulations have shown that public health awareness of the susceptible individuals on snakebite preventive measures could reduce the number of envenoming and prevent deaths and disabilities in the population. The simulations further revealed that if at least fifty percent of snakebite envenoming patients receive early treatment with antivenom a substantial number of deaths will be averted. Furthermore, it is shown using optimal control that combining public health awareness and antivenom treatment averts the highest number of snakebite induced deaths and disability adjusted life years in the study area. To choose the best strategy amidst limited resources in the study area, cost effectiveness analysis in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio is performed. It has been established that the control efforts of combining public health awareness of the susceptible individuals and antivenom treatment for victims of snakebite envenoming is the most cost effective strategy. Approximately the sum of US$72,548 is needed to avert 117 deaths or 2,739 disability adjusted life years that are recorded within 21 months in the study area. Thus, the combination of these two control strategies is recommended.Author summary: Snakebite envenoming (SBE) is currently one of the life-threatening neglected diseases especially in developing countries. The fight against this menace requires multidisciplinary approach. Owing to significant number of deaths and disabilities recorded per year in West African savanna region, we developed a new mathematical model for SBE in order to gain more insights into the dynamics and control of SBE. It is clear that communities in northeast Nigeria do not have adequate health information on self-protection against SBE and the antivenom is almost scarce and unaffordable. Thus, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and potential impact of both public health awareness campaign and treatment for SBE as interventional strategies against snakebite. We discovered that public health awareness is crucial in averting SBE, deaths and disabilities. Also, if at least 50% of SBE victims received treatment within 24 hours of bite, a significant number of deaths and disabilities will be prevented. Furthermore, the study revealed that the combination of public health awareness and treatment decreases the burden of the disease in terms of deaths and disability adjusted life years at a lesser cost as compared with implementing one of these interventions separately. These results can be used as a guide for planning SBE control policy in northeast Nigeria and beyond.