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Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study

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  • Jessica L Abbate
  • Carmen Lia Murall
  • Heinz Richner
  • Christian L Althaus

Abstract

Background: Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013–2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors. Methodology/Principal Findings: We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014–2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68–98 days] (p

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica L Abbate & Carmen Lia Murall & Heinz Richner & Christian L Althaus, 2016. "Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0004676
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004676
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