Relative Risk of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: A Spatial Analysis in Urban Area

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. Methodology: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas) of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412), were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features) and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. Principal Findings: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146). The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. Conclusions: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities. Author Summary: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the increasing occurrence of human VL cases in urban centers is a challenge for the control program. We aimed to identify the risk areas for VL and the risk factors involved in transmission in Belo Horizonte, a large urban area of the Brazil. At the same geographical space, we analyzed human VL cases (n = 412), canine infection and socioeconomic and environmental features. We identified a concentration of high-risk small-areas of human VL cases in the northern part of the city, marked by worse levels of education and income, and higher number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The spatial analysis used is useful for the identification of small-areas with a greater risk of VL and displays operational applicability in the control program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus, the frequent monitoring of risk of human VL according to small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.