Treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis: Model-Based Analyses on the Spread of Antimony-Resistant L. donovani in Bihar, India

Background: Pentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of antileishmanial therapy for decades, but increasing failure rates under antimonial treatment have challenged further use of these drugs in the Indian subcontinent. Experimental evidence has suggested that parasites which are resistant against antimonials have superior survival skills than sensitive ones even in the absence of antimonial treatment. Methods and Findings: We use simulation studies based on a mathematical L. donovani transmission model to identify parameters which can explain why treatment failure rates under antimonial treatment increased up to 65% in Bihar between 1980 and 1997. Model analyses suggest that resistance to treatment alone cannot explain the observed treatment failure rates. We explore two hypotheses referring to an increased fitness of antimony-resistant parasites: the additional fitness is (i) disease-related, by causing more clinical cases (higher pathogenicity) or more severe disease (higher virulence), or (ii) is transmission-related, by increasing the transmissibility from sand flies to humans or vice versa. Conclusions: Both hypotheses can potentially explain the Bihar observations. However, increased transmissibility as an explanation appears more plausible because it can occur in the background of asymptomatically transmitted infection whereas disease-related factors would most probably be observable. Irrespective of the cause of fitness, parasites with a higher fitness will finally replace sensitive parasites, even if antimonials are replaced by another drug. Author Summary: The protozoan flagellate Leishmania donovani causes the neglected, life-threatening disease visceral leishmaniasis. Parasites are transmitted from man to man by the bite of the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of the disease. Pentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of antileishmanial therapy for decades but rapidly increasing failure rates up to 65% observed between 1980 and 1997 in the state of Bihar, India, have challenged further use of these drugs. Comparative in vitro and in vivo experiments indicate that antimony-resistant parasites have a higher fitness than antimony-sensitive ones even in the absence of antimonial treatment. Simulation studies based on a previously published mathematical L. donovani transmission model suggest that resistance to antimonial treatment alone cannot explain the Bihar observations but that resistance together with higher fitness offers the potential to explain the data. After an antimony-resistant parasite with higher fitness has emerged, it will finally replace the antimony-sensitive ones, even in complete absence of antimonial treatment.