The Natural History of Trachoma Infection and Disease in a Gambian Cohort with Frequent Follow-Up

Background: The natural history of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infections in endemic communities has not been well characterised and is an important determinant of the effectiveness of different mass treatment strategies to prevent blindness due to trachoma. Methodology/Principal Findings: A multistate hidden Markov model was fitted to data on infection and active disease from 256 untreated villagers in The Gambia who were examined every 2 weeks over a 6-month period. Parameters defining the natural history of trachoma were estimated, and associations between these parameters, demographic and baseline immune measurements examined. The median incubation period following infection was estimated at 17 days (95% confidence interval: 11–28). Disease persisted for longer than infection (median 21 (15–32) weeks) versus 17 (12–24) weeks), with an estimated median duration of post-infection inflammation of 5 (3–8) weeks. The duration of active disease showed a significant decline with age even after accounting for lower rates of re-infection and disease at older ages (p = 0.004). Measurements of levels of baseline IgA to epitopes in the major outer membrane protein of Chlamydia trachomatis were not significantly correlated with protection or more rapid clearance of infection. Conclusions: The average duration of infection with Chlamydia trachomatis especially at younger ages is long. This contributes to the persistence and gradual return of trachoma after community-wide treatment with antibiotics. Author Summary: Trachoma is an infectious disease of the eye that causes blindness in many of the poorest parts of the world. In this paper, we use a novel statistical approach to estimate the characteristics of this disease among people living in The Gambia who were examined every 2 weeks over a 6-month period. We found that the typical duration of infection with Chlamydia trachomatis and of clinically active disease were significantly longer than previously estimated. We tested different hypotheses about the natural history of trachoma that explain the relationship between infection and disease observed in the field. We also confirmed that disease lasts significantly longer among young children under 5 years old compared with older children and adults, even after accounting for high rates of re-infection in this age group, consistent with the development of immunity with age. The long duration of infection, especially among younger children, contributes to the persistence and gradual return of trachoma after community-wide treatment with azithromycin. This implies the need for high treatment coverage if infection is to be eliminated from a community, even where the return of infection after treatment is seen to be slow.