Geographic and Temporal Trends in the Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Mechanisms of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance: An Individual-Patient- and Sequence-Level Meta-Analysis

Background: Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes. Methods and Findings: We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05–1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06–1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12–1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01–1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12–1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92–1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions—a proxy for recent infection—yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs—K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A—accounted for >80% of NNRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. Sixteen nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs accounted for >69% of NRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. In SSA and SSEA, 89% of NNRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz, whereas only 27% of NRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to zidovudine, lamivudine, tenofovir, or abacavir. Of 763 viruses with TDR in SSA and SSEA, 725 (95%) were genetically dissimilar; 38 (5%) formed 19 sequence pairs. Inherent limitations of this study are that some cohorts may not represent the broader regional population and that studies were heterogeneous with respect to duration of infection prior to sampling. Conclusions: Most TDR strains in SSA and SSEA arose independently, suggesting that ARV regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance combined with improved patient adherence may mitigate TDR increases by reducing the generation of new ARV-resistant strains. A small number of NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of high-level resistance, suggesting that inexpensive point-mutation assays to detect these mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in regions with high levels of TDR. In the context of a public health approach to ARV therapy, a reliable point-of-care genotypic resistance test could identify which patients should receive standard first-line therapy and which should receive a protease-inhibitor-containing regimen. In this individual patient and sequence-level meta-analysis, Soo-Yon Rhee and colleagues measure regional trends in HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance prevalence and investigate the specific mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and in different virus subtypes.Background: About 35 million people are currently infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS by destroying immune system cells and leaving infected individuals susceptible to other infections. Early in the AIDS epidemic, most HIV-infected individuals died within ten years of infection. Then, in 1996, effective antiretroviral (ARV) therapy—drug combinations that suppress HIV replication by inhibiting reverse transcriptase and other essential viral enzymes—became available. For people living in affluent countries, HIV/AIDS became a chronic condition, but because ARV therapy was expensive, HIV/AIDS remained fatal in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2003, the international community began to work towards achieving universal access to ARV therapy. Now, more than 10 million HIV-positive individuals in LMICs receive ARV therapy, usually as a fixed-dose combination of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), such as tenofovir and lamivudine, plus a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), such as efavirenz or nevirapine. Why Was This Study Done?: The global scale-up of ARV therapy has reduced deaths from HIV/AIDS and the incidence of HIV infection in LMICs, but the development of resistance to ARV therapy is threatening these advances. HIV rapidly accumulates genetic changes (mutations), some of which make HIV resistant to ARV therapy. Up to 30% of patients receiving a fixed-dose NRTI/NNRTI combination develop virological failure, and a high proportion of these patients develop mutations associated with resistance to the ARVs in their regimen. Moreover, the proportion of newly infected, ARV-naïve individuals with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is also increasing. Organizations involved in HIV/AIDS control need to understand the regional and temporal mutational patterns of TDR to inform the development of guidelines for first-line ARV therapy and of inexpensive resistance mutation assays for use in LMICs. Here, using a statistical approach called meta-analysis to combine information from individual patients about the resistance mutations they carry, the researchers investigate the molecular epidemiology of TDR (the patterns of molecular changes underlying TDR in populations) and identify the HIV drug-resistance mutations most responsible for TDR in different world regions. What Did the Researchers Do and Find?: The researchers identified 287 studies published between 2000 and 2013 from 111 countries that included the reverse transcriptase sequences of HIV viruses from 50,870 ARV-naïve, HIV-positive individuals. The researchers analyzed each virus sequence for the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs) previously shown to be specific indicators of TDR. Meta-analysis of these data indicated that the average overall prevalence of TDR (the proportion of ARV-naïve, HIV-positive individuals infected with a virus carrying one or more SDRMs) ranged from 2.8% in sub-Saharan Africa to 11.5% in North America. In sub-Saharan Africa, the odds (chance) of TDR increased 1.09-fold per year following national ARV scale-up; this increase was attributable to an increase in NRTI- and NNRTI-associated resistance. By contrast, in LMICs in south/southeast Asia, the odds of TDR remained unchanged following ARV scale-up. In Latin America/Caribbean, North America, Europe, and upper-income Asian countries, the odds of TDR have increased by around 1.10-fold per year since 1995, mainly as a result of increased NNRTI resistance. Four NNRTI-associated and 16 NRTI-associated SDRMs accounted for most NNRTI- and NRTI-associated TDR, respectively, in all regions. Notably, in sub-Saharan Africa and south/southeast Asia, most of the NNRTI-associated SDRMs detected were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz. Finally, the researchers report that 95% of TDR viruses in sub-Saharan Africa and south/southeast Asia were unrelated and had therefore arisen independently. What Do These Findings Mean?: Because many drug-resistance mutations reduce HIV’s fitness and tend to be lost rapidly in individuals not exposed to ARV therapy, differences among the datasets used in this meta-analysis with respect to how long each ARV-naïve patient had been infected with HIV before virus sampling may limit the accuracy of these findings. Nevertheless, the finding that most of the TDR strains detected in sub-Saharan Africa and south/southeast Asia arose independently suggests that improved patient adherence to ARV therapy and the use of ARV regimens that contain drugs to which HIV rarely develops resistance (regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance) should reduce the generation of new ARV-resistant strains and mitigate TDR increases. In addition, the finding that a few NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of transmitted high-level resistance suggests that an inexpensive assay that detects these specific mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in LMICs with high TDR levels. Additional Information: Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001810.