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Complexity in Mathematical Models of Public Health Policies: A Guide for Consumers of Models

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  • Sanjay Basu
  • Jason Andrews

Abstract

: Sanjay Basu and colleagues explain how models are increasingly used to inform public health policy yet readers may struggle to evaluate the quality of models. All models require simplifying assumptions, and there are tradeoffs between creating models that are more “realistic” versus those that are grounded in more solid data. Indeed, complex models are not necessarily more accurate or reliable simply because they can more easily fit real-world data than simpler models can.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Basu & Jason Andrews, 2013. "Complexity in Mathematical Models of Public Health Policies: A Guide for Consumers of Models," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-6, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1001540
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001540
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    Cited by:

    1. Dario Brdarić & Senka Samardžić & Ivana Mihin Huskić & Giorgos Dritsakis & Jadran Sessa & Mariola Śliwińska-Kowalska & Małgorzata Pawlaczyk-Łuszczyńska & Ioannis Basdekis & George Spanoudakis, 2020. "A Data-informed Public Health Policy-Makers Platform," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Tiago França Melo De Lima & Raquel Martins Lana & Tiago Garcia De Senna Carneiro & Cláudia Torres Codeço & Gabriel Souza Machado & Lucas Saraiva Ferreira & Líliam César De Castro Medeiros & Clodoveu A, 2016. "DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Penny R. Breeze & Hazel Squires & Kate Ennis & Petra Meier & Kate Hayes & Nik Lomax & Alan Shiell & Frank Kee & Frank de Vocht & Martin O’Flaherty & Nigel Gilbert & Robin Purshouse & Stewart Robinson , 2023. "Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1603-1625, July.

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