Threshold Haemoglobin Levels and the Prognosis of Stable Coronary Disease: Two New Cohorts and a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Anoop Shah and colleagues performed a retrospective cohort study and a systematic review, and show evidence that in people with stable coronary disease there were threshold hemoglobin values below which mortality increased in a graded, continuous fashion.Background: Low haemoglobin concentration has been associated with adverse prognosis in patients with angina and myocardial infarction (MI), but the strength and shape of the association and the presence of any threshold has not been precisely evaluated. Methods and findings: A retrospective cohort study was carried out using the UK General Practice Research Database. 20,131 people with a new diagnosis of stable angina and no previous acute coronary syndrome, and 14,171 people with first MI who survived for at least 7 days were followed up for a mean of 3.2 years. Using semi-parametric Cox regression and multiple adjustment, there was evidence of threshold haemoglobin values below which mortality increased in a graded continuous fashion. For men with MI, the threshold value was 13.5 g/dl (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.2–13.9); the 29.5% of patients with haemoglobin below this threshold had an associated hazard ratio for mortality of 2.00 (95% CI 1.76–2.29) compared to those with haemoglobin values in the lowest risk range. Women tended to have lower threshold haemoglobin values (e.g, for MI 12.8 g/dl; 95% CI 12.1–13.5) but the shape and strength of association did not differ between the genders, nor between patients with angina and MI. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis that identified ten previously published studies, reporting a total of only 1,127 endpoints, but none evaluated thresholds of risk. Conclusions: There is an association between low haemoglobin concentration and increased mortality. A large proportion of patients with coronary disease have haemoglobin concentrations below the thresholds of risk defined here. Intervention trials would clarify whether increasing the haemoglobin concentration reduces mortality. : Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary Background: Coronary artery disease is the main cause of death in high-income countries and the second most common cause of death in middle- and low-income countries, accounting for 16.3%, 13.9%, and 9.4% of all deaths, respectively, in 2004. Many risks factors, such as high blood pressure and high blood cholesterol level, are known to be associated with coronary artery disease, and prevention and treatment of such factors remains one of the key strategies in the management of coronary artery disease. Recent studies have suggested that low hemoglobin may be associated with mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. Therefore, using blood hemoglobin level as a prognostic biomarker for patients with stable coronary artery disease may be of potential benefit especially as measurement of hemoglobin is almost universal in such patients and there are available interventions that effectively increase hemoglobin concentration. Why was This Study Done?: Much more needs to be understood about the relationship between low hemoglobin and coronary artery disease before hemoglobin levels can potentially be used as a clinical prognostic biomarker. Previous studies have been limited in their ability to describe the shape of this relationship—which means that it is uncertain whether there is a “best” hemoglobin threshold or a continuous graded relationship from “good” to “bad”—to assess gender differences, and to compare patients with angina or who have experienced previous myocardial infarction. In order to inform these knowledge gaps, the researchers conducted a retrospective analysis of patients from a prospective observational cohort as well as a systematic review and meta-analysis (statistical analysis) of previous studies. What Did the Researchers Do and Find?: The researchers conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of previous studies and found ten relevant studies, but none evaluated thresholds of risk, only linear relationships. What Do These Findings Mean?: These findings suggest that there are thresholds of hemoglobin that are associated with increased risk of mortality in patients with angina or myocardial infarction. A substantial proportion of patients (15%–30%) have a hemoglobin level that places them at markedly higher risk of death compared to patients with lowest risk hemoglobin levels and importantly, these thresholds are higher than clinicians might anticipate—and are remarkably similar to World Health Organization anemia thresholds of 12 g/dl for women and 13 g/dl for men. Despite the limitations of these observational findings, this study supports the rationale for conducting future randomized controlled trials to assess whether hemoglobin levels are causal and whether clinicians should intervene to increase hemoglobin levels, for example by oral iron supplementation. Additional Information: Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000439.