Evidence for a Common Origin of Blacksmiths and Cultivators in the Ethiopian Ari within the Last 4500 Years: Lessons for Clustering-Based Inference

The Ari peoples of Ethiopia are comprised of different occupational groups that can be distinguished genetically, with Ari Cultivators and the socially marginalised Ari Blacksmiths recently shown to have a similar level of genetic differentiation between them (FST ≈ 0.023 − 0.04) as that observed among multiple ethnic groups sampled throughout Ethiopia. Anthropologists have proposed two competing theories to explain the origins of the Ari Blacksmiths as (i) remnants of a population that inhabited Ethiopia prior to the arrival of agriculturists (e.g. Cultivators), or (ii) relatively recently related to the Cultivators but presently marginalized in the community due to their trade. Two recent studies by different groups analysed genome-wide DNA from samples of Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators and suggested that genetic patterns between the two groups were more consistent with model (i) and subsequent assimilation of the indigenous peoples into the expanding agriculturalist community. We analysed the same samples using approaches designed to attenuate signals of genetic differentiation that are attributable to allelic drift within a population. By doing so, we provide evidence that the genetic differences between Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators can be entirely explained by bottleneck effects consistent with hypothesis (ii). This finding serves as both a cautionary tale about interpreting results from unsupervised clustering algorithms, and suggests that social constructions are contributing directly to genetic differentiation over a relatively short time period among previously genetically similar groups.Author Summary: While it is widely recognized that DNA patterns vary across world-wide human populations, the primary features that drive these differences are less well understood. As an example, the Ari peoples of Ethiopia are presently socially divided according to occupation, with Ari Blacksmiths marginalised relative to Ari Cultivators. Two competing theories proposed by anthropologists to explain the existence of these occupational groupings suggest very different histories: (i) the Cultivators reflect migrants who moved into the region occupied by ancestors of the Blacksmiths perhaps many thousands of years ago, versus (ii) the Blacksmiths and Cultivators comprised the same ancestral group before the former was marginalised due solely to their trade. Recent genetic studies showed that Blacksmiths and Cultivators are distinguishable by their DNA, and suggested that overall DNA patterns among the two groups were consistent with (i). However, we demonstrate here that interpreting the results of currently popular algorithms that compare DNA is not always straight-forward. Instead we use a variety of analyses to show that (ii) seems a more likely explanation, perhaps illustrating how social marginalisation can lead to groups becoming genetically distinguishable over a relatively short time period.