Genetic Determinants of Long-Term Changes in Blood Lipid Concentrations: 10-Year Follow-Up of the GLACIER Study

Recent genome-wide meta-analyses identified 157 loci associated with cross-sectional lipid traits. Here we tested whether these loci associate (singly and in trait-specific genetic risk scores [GRS]) with longitudinal changes in total cholesterol (TC) and triglyceride (TG) levels in a population-based prospective cohort from Northern Sweden (the GLACIER Study). We sought replication in a southern Swedish cohort (the MDC Study; N = 2,943). GLACIER Study participants (N = 6,064) were genotyped with the MetaboChip array. Up to 3,495 participants had 10-yr follow-up data available in the GLACIER Study. The TC- and TG-specific GRSs were strongly associated with change in lipid levels (β = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0×10−11 for TC; β = 0.02 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.0×10−5 for TG). In individual SNP analysis, one TC locus, apolipoprotein E (APOE) rs4420638 (β = 0.12 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 2.0×10−5), and two TG loci, tribbles pseudokinase 1 (TRIB1) rs2954029 (β = 0.09 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 5.1×10−4) and apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) rs6589564 (β = 0.31 mmol/l per effect allele per decade follow-up, P = 1.4×10−8), remained significantly associated with longitudinal changes for the respective traits after correction for multiple testing. An additional 12 loci were nominally associated with TC or TG changes. In replication analyses, the APOE rs4420638, TRIB1 rs2954029, and APOA1 rs6589564 associations were confirmed (P≤0.001). In summary, trait-specific GRSs are robustly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels and three individual SNPs were strongly associated with 10-yr changes in lipid levels.Author Summary: Although large cross-sectional studies have proven highly successful in identifying gene variants related to lipid levels and other cardiometabolic traits, very few examples of well-designed longitudinal studies exist where associations between genotypes and long-term changes in lipids have been assessed. Here we undertook analyses in the GLACIER Study to determine whether the 157 previously identified lipid-associated genes variants associate with changes in blood lipid levels over 10-yr follow-up. We identified a variant in APOE that is robustly associated with total cholesterol change and two variants in TRIB1 and APOA1 respectively that are robustly associated with triglyceride change. We replicated these findings in a second Swedish cohort (the MDC Study). The identified genes had previously been associated with cardiovascular traits such as myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease; hence, these novel lipid associations provide additional insight into the pathogenesis of atherosclerotic heart and large vessel disease. By incorporating all 157 established variants into gene scores, we also observed strong associations with 10-yr lipid changes, illustrating the polygenic nature of blood lipid deterioration.