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EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A Review of tho Evidence with Special Reference to Pakistan

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  • Mark McGillivray
  • Howard White
  • Afzal Ahmad*

Abstract

This paper looks at the impact of structural adjustment on the macroeconomic performance of Pakistan. After a brief description of the broad characteristics of the various policies implemented under Pakistan's 19805 adjustment programme, it provides a methodological review of pre-existing studies of the effects of adjustment on macroeconomic performance in Pakistan. A number of methodological shortcomings of the methods used are identified, including the problem of controlling for non-adjustment factors. An alternative analysis is then proposed, which involves simulating an error correction model using time series data for inflation and investment. Model simulations based on a number of alternative scenarios suggest that adjustment has had a negligible indirect effect, if any, on investment. Inflation would on average have been higher in the absence of adjustment, though this difference has diminished in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark McGillivray & Howard White & Afzal Ahmad*, 1995. "EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A Review of tho Evidence with Special Reference to Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 11, pages 57-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article1995viii
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    Cited by:

    1. Zafar Iqbal & Rizwana Siddiqui, 1999. "Distributional Impact of Structural Adjustment on Income Inequality in Pakistan: A SAM-based Analysis," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 1999:02, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. A. R. Kemal & Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui, 2001. "Tariff Reduction and Income Distribution: A CGE-based Analysis for Urban and Rural Households in Pakistan," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 2001:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. A. R. Kemal, 2001. "Debt Accumulation and Its Implications for Growth and Poverty," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 263-281.
    4. McGillivray, Mark, 2003. "Policy-based lending, structural adjustment and economic growth in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 113-121, February.
    5. Shahrukh Rafi Khan, 1997. "Has Aid Helped in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 947-957.
    6. A. R. Kemal, 2005. "Macroeconomic Management: Breaking out of the Debt Trap," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(Special E), pages 45-62, September.

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