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EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A Review of tho Evidence with Special Reference to Pakistan

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  • Mark McGillivray
  • Howard White
  • Afzal Ahmad*

Abstract

This paper looks at the impact of structural adjustment on the macroeconomic performance of Pakistan. After a brief description of the broad characteristics of the various policies implemented under Pakistan's 19805 adjustment programme, it provides a methodological review of pre-existing studies of the effects of adjustment on macroeconomic performance in Pakistan. A number of methodological shortcomings of the methods used are identified, including the problem of controlling for non-adjustment factors. An alternative analysis is then proposed, which involves simulating an error correction model using time series data for inflation and investment. Model simulations based on a number of alternative scenarios suggest that adjustment has had a negligible indirect effect, if any, on investment. Inflation would on average have been higher in the absence of adjustment, though this difference has diminished in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark McGillivray & Howard White & Afzal Ahmad*, 1995. "EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A Review of tho Evidence with Special Reference to Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 11, pages 57-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article1995viii
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    Cited by:

    1. Zafar Iqbal & Rizwana Siddiqui, 1999. "Distributional Impact of Structural Adjustment on Income Inequality in Pakistan: A SAM-based Analysis," MIMAP Technical Paper Series 1999:02, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Shahrukh Rafi Khan, 1997. "Has Aid Helped in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 947-957.
    3. A. R. Kemal, 2001. "Debt Accumulation and Its Implications for Growth and Poverty," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 263-281.
    4. A. R. Kemal, 2005. "Macroeconomic Management: Breaking out of the Debt Trap," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(Special E), pages 45-62, September.
    5. A.R. Kemal & Rehana Siddiqui & Rizwana Siddiqui, 2001. "Triff Reduction and Income Destribution A CGE-based Analysis for Urban and Rural Households in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2001:181, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. McGillivray, Mark, 2003. "Policy-based lending, structural adjustment and economic growth in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 113-121, February.

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