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FORECASTING WITHOUT THEORY: Pakistan’s Export of Cotton and Rice

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  • A. Hafeez SHAIKH
  • Asad ZAMAN*

Abstract

The paper analyses the behavior of Pakistan’s commodity exports over time and makes medium term projections about the quantity and value of basmati, other rice and raw cotton. Our results, based upon careful statistical analysis and detailed study of the individual commodities reveal an impressive trend in the growth of these exports. It is projected that during the next five years the quantities exported of basmati, ‘other’ rice and raw cotton will grow at an annual rate of 11 per cent, 9 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Our forecasts are relatively more optimistic than s~me alternate projections made so far.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Hafeez SHAIKH & Asad ZAMAN*, 1983. "FORECASTING WITHOUT THEORY: Pakistan’s Export of Cotton and Rice," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 2(1), pages 65-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:pje:journl:article1983sumii
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    Cited by:

    1. Sajjad Akhtar, 2003. "Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 59-75.

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