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Investment, Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus

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  • Nasir Iqbal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Saima Nawaz

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

The paper has twofold objectives. Firstly, the impact of the inflation rate on economic growth with the possibility of two threshold levels for Pakistan using annual data from 1961 to 2008 is examined and secondly, nonlinear relationship between inflation and investment has been investigated. Inflation and growth models support the existence of a nonlinear relationship with two thresholds (6 percent and 11 percent). Inflation below the first threshold affects economic growth positively but insignificantly; at moderate rates of inflation, between the two threshold levels, the effect of inflation is significant and strongly negative and at high rates of inflation, above the second threshold, the ma rginal impact of additional inflation on economic growth diminishes but is still significantly negative. Investment is one of the possible channels through which inflation influences economic growth and the analysis indicates the nonlinear relationship between these two variables with only one threshold at 7 percent. Rate of inflation below the threshold level has positive but insignificant impact, while above the threshold it has strong negative and significant impact on the investment. Therefore, it is desirable to keep the inflation below 6 percent because it may be helpful for the achievement of robust economic growth and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasir Iqbal & Saima Nawaz, 2009. "Investment, Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 863-874.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:863-874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 125-173.
    2. Raynold Runganga, 2020. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Zimbabwe is there Any Inflation Threshold Level?," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
    3. Ali, Sharafat, 2014. "Inflation, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 53706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    5. Amjad Ali & Nooreen Mujahid & Yahya Rashid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2015. "Human Capital Outflow and Economic Misery: Fresh Evidence for Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 747-764, December.
    6. Jalloh, Talatu & Bah, Fatmata Binta, 2023. "The effect of inflation and unemployment on economic growth: evidence on Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 117666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Limam Ould Mohamed Mahmoud, 2015. "Consumer price index and economic growth: A case study of Mauritania 1990 - 2013," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 16-23, February.
    8. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    9. Zieba, Marta & , Thi-Kieu-Trang & Mbugua, Rahab Njeri, 2022. "Factors affecting economic growth: empirical evidence from developing countries," OSF Preprints jm7h4, Center for Open Science.
    10. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2018. "Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1103.
    11. Muhammad Shabbir & Imrab Shaheen & Fahrat Qayyum, 2020. "Domestic Investment in Pakistan: An Analysis Across Different Political Regimes," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 344-351.
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2011. "Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: is there any threshold effect?," MPRA Paper 33494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Samir Ghazouani, 2012. "Threshold Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from MENA Region," Working Papers 715, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Nianyong Wang & Muhammad Haroon Shah & Kishwar Ali & Shah Abbas & Sami Ullah, 2019. "Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Zafar Hayat & Saher Masood, 2022. "Inflation Targeting Skepticism: Myth or Reality? A Way Forward for Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 1-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Inflation; Economic Growth; Nonlinear; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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