The Change in Land Distribution in the Punjab — Empirical Application of an Exogenous-endogenous Model for Agrarian Sector Analysis

Agrarian South Asia is undergoing significant technical and structural change. The debate on the direction of the change in the agrarian structure has been somewhat myopic. The neoclassical and Chayanovian schools argue that the land distribution is not worsening to eliminate the middle owner group of the peasantry. The Marxist and structuralist schools argue, in complete contrast, that polarisation of the land distribution is rapidly eliminating the middle group of the peasantry. This study attempts to broaden the existing dichotomous framework. An agrarian sector - and by analogy all agrarian sectors - cannot be assumed to be homogenous in the production conditions and, therefore, in the direction of change. To capture regional differentials, a theoretical exogenous-endogenous model is specified for agrarian sector analysis. Factors exogenous to a region are used to explain homogeneity in the change between regions. Factors endogenous to specific regions are used to explain differentials in the change between regions. This exogenous-endogenous model is used to predict the direction of agrarian change in the two major regions of the Punjab, i.e., the canal colonies and the South-West The model predicts an increase in the concentration of operated area in the canal colonies but a constancy in this concentration in the South-West Empirical analysis of representative villages from each region confirms these predictions as well as the usefulness of the model.