IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ieroec/v7y2016i4p593-612.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis Of Ramadan Effect By Gjr-Garch Model: Case Of Borsa Istanbul

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Akbalik

    (Marmara University, Turkey)

  • K. Batu Tunay

    (Marmara University, Turkey)

Abstract

Although there are a lot of studies testing the calendar effect in BIST, there are limited numbers of studies testing the Ramadan effect. In this study, the period of 05 August 1997–24 October 2014 is tested by the GJR-GARCH(1,1) model on the basis of BIST 30, 100, all, second national, sectors and sub-sectors. In some of the models, the dummy variable of Ramadan did not have significant coefficients. In the models that provide significant value of the dummy variable of Ramadan, coefficients of this variable are negative. This shows that, in the Ramadan, return rates of the second national index, chemistry, and manifacturing, textile, trust companies sectors are affected negatively. Any significant result could not be found whether Ramadan has effect upon other sector indices. Findings are in the direction that even if the month of Ramadan generally doesn’t increase the average return, it makes a positive impact on the market by reducing the volatility of returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Akbalik & K. Batu Tunay, 2016. "An Analysis Of Ramadan Effect By Gjr-Garch Model: Case Of Borsa Istanbul," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 7(4), pages 593-612, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:7:y:2016:i:4:p:593-612
    DOI: 10.12775/OeC.2016.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/OeC.2016.033
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.12775/OeC.2016.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2013. "Gone Fishin’ Effects on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 13(1), pages 107-116.
    2. Al-Hajieh, Heitham & Redhead, Keith & Rodgers, Timothy, 2011. "Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 345-356, September.
    3. Krzysztof Borowski, 2016. "Analysis Of Monthly Rates Of Return In April On The Example Of Selected World Stock Exchange Indices," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 307-325, June.
    4. Halari, Anwar & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Power, David. M. & Helliar, Christine, 2015. "Islamic calendar anomalies: Evidence from Pakistani firm-level data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-73.
    5. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect is Weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Working Paper series 15-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    7. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    8. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Etebari, Ahmad & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2012. "Fast profits: Investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 835-845.
    9. Fazal Husain, 1998. "A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 77-81.
    10. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2009. "Calendar Anomalies in the Ghana Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, April.
    11. Seyyed, Fazal J. & Abraham, Abraham & Al-Hajji, Mohsen, 2005. "Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 374-383, September.
    12. Ercan Balaban & Asli Bayar & Ozgur Berk Kan, 2001. "Stock returns, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in world equity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 263-268.
    13. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2013. "Do mutual fund managers exploit the Ramadan anomaly? Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 211-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 172-189.
    2. Monika Hadas-Dyduch, 2018. "Nonlinear Alleviation of Edge Effects in the Context of Minimizing Prediction Errors," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 161-168, February.
    3. Kostyantyn MALYSHENKO & Vadim MALYSHENKO & Elena Yu. PONOMAREVA & Marina ANASHKINA, 2019. "Analysis of the stock market anomalies in the context of changing the information paradigm," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 239-270, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Khazali, Osamah & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Zoubi, Taisier, 2017. "The impact of religious practice on stock returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 172-189.
    2. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "The impact of the Great Lent and of the Nativity Fast on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Dec 2016.
    3. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.
    4. Fatima Syed & Naimat U. Khan, 2017. "Islamic Calendar Anomalies: Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(3), pages 104-122, September.
    5. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 95-112.
    6. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Proceedings RCE 2017, Editura Lumen, vol. 0, pages 95-112, November.
    7. Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David M. & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch, 2019. "Taking advantage of Ramadan and January in Muslim countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 85-96.
    8. Lai, Ya-Wen & Windawati, Atif, 2017. "Risk, return, and liquidity during Ramadan: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 233-241.
    9. Abdullah Al-Awadhi & Ahmad Bash & Fouad Jamaani, 2021. "Ramadan Effect: A Structural Time-Series Test," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 260-269, January.
    10. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Cui, Yueting & Gad, Samar & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2020. "Feedback trading and the ramadan effect in frontier markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Dharani, M. & Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2019. "Faith-based norms and portfolio performance: Evidence from India," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 79-89.
    12. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    13. Halari, Anwar & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Power, David. M. & Helliar, Christine, 2015. "Islamic calendar anomalies: Evidence from Pakistani firm-level data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-73.
    14. Al-Khazali, Osamah, 2014. "Revisiting fast profit investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 158-170.
    15. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Paul-Olivier KLEIN & Rima TURK & Laurent WEILL, 2017. "How Religiosity Shapes Investor Behavior: Sukuk Issuances During Ramadan," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2017-01, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    17. Wasiuzzaman, Shaista, 2018. "Seasonality in the Saudi stock market: The Hajj effect," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 273-281.
    18. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2013. "Do mutual fund managers exploit the Ramadan anomaly? Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 211-232.
    19. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Labidi, Chiraz & Troster, Victor & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "The impact of financial and economic factors on Islamic mutual fund performance: Evidence from multiple fund categories," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    20. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Yaghoubi, Mona, 2021. "The Ramadan effect: A standalone anomaly or just a compensation for low liquidity?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; anomalies; Ramadan effect; GJR-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ieroec:v:7:y:2016:i:4:p:593-612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.