IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ierequ/v16y2021i2p239-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How the 2020 pandemic affected tax revenues in Russian regions?

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Yu. Malkina

    (Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod, Russia)

Abstract

Research background: The 2020 pandemic has proven to be stressful for regional tax systems. However, these systems reacted differently to lockdown and a decline in business activity, which was associated with both their structures and the specifics of their development. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to assess the impact of the 2020 pandemic on tax revenues of Russian regions, as well as to analyze the factors contributing to the resilience of regional tax systems to epidemiological crises. Methods: The study is based on monthly data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation on total tax revenues in 83 Russian regions for 2013–2020. For data up to March 2020, we construct stationary time series and plotted ARiMA regressions. Based on them, we forecast tax revenues for the period from April to December 2020, if there were no pandemic. The impact of the pandemic is calculated as the deviation of actual tax revenue from the forecast for the corresponding 9 months. Findings & value added: We find that the impact of the pandemic on tax revenues varies over time and space. The crisis hit the fiscal system most negatively in the first three full months of the lockdown (April–June 2020). Some mining regions of the Urals, Western and Eastern Siberia, specializing in the extraction of oil and gas, as well as non-ferrous metals, turned out to be the most vulnerable to the pandemic. The most resistant to it are the central and southern regions of the European part of Russia. Calculation of Pearson's correlations shows that the greatest drop in tax revenues occur in regions with a larger share of the mining industry in gross value added and MET in tax revenues, with a higher GRP per capita and an increased level of general economic instability. The smallest decline in tax revenue, or even its growth, is observed in regions with a larger share of personal income tax and property tax in tax revenues, a higher share of trade and processing industries, social sphere and public administration in gross value added, a higher degree of economic diversification and a larger share of small business in total turnover. The obtained results are applicable to manage the resilience of tax systems to epidemiological crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Yu. Malkina, 2021. "How the 2020 pandemic affected tax revenues in Russian regions?," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 239-260, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:239-260
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.2021.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.009
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24136/eq.2021.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin Mai & Roger C. K. Chan & Chaoqun Zhan, 2019. "Which Sectors Really Matter for a Resilient Chinese Economy? A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    3. N. V. Zubarevich & S. G. Safronov, 2020. "Russian Regions in the Acute Phase of the Coronavirus Crisis: Differences from Previous Economic Crises of the 2000s," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 443-453, October.
    4. Hacıoğlu-Hoke, Sinem & Känzig, Diego R. & Surico, Paolo, 2021. "The distributional impact of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Marina Malkina, 2017. "Influence of the Industrial Structure of Economy on the Risk Level of Russian Regions' Tax Systems," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2025-2035.
    6. Filippo Di Pietro & Patrizio Lecca & Simone Salotti, 2021. "Regional economic resilience in the European Union: a numerical general equilibrium analysis," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312, July.
    7. Juntao Tan & Kevin Lo & Fangdao Qiu & Wenxin Liu & Jing Li & Pingyu Zhang, 2017. "Regional Economic Resilience: Resistance and Recoverability of Resource-Based Cities during Economic Crises in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    8. Michael P Devereux & İrem Güçeri & Martin Simmler & Eddy H F Tam, 0. "Discretionary fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 225-241.
    9. Ron Martin, 2012. "Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    10. Dai, Ruochen & Feng, Hao & Hu, Junpeng & Jin, Quan & Li, Huiwen & Wang, Ranran & Wang, Ruixin & Xu, Lihe & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from two-wave phone surveys in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali & Kalli, Rajesh & Managi, Shunsuke & Majhi, Babita, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 324-339.
    12. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Goswami, Binoy & Mandal, Raju & Nath, Hiranya K., 2021. "Covid-19 pandemic and economic performances of the states in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 461-479.
    14. Kolomak, E. A., 2020. "Economic effects of pandemic-related restrictions in Russia and their spatial heterogeneity," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 154-161.
    15. Howard Chernick & David Copeland & Andrew Reschovsky, 2020. "The Fiscal Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cities: An Initial Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 699-732, September.
    16. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    17. Peter A.G. Bergeijk & Steven Brakman & Charles Marrewijk, 2017. "Heterogeneous economic resilience and the great recession's world trade collapse," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 3-12, March.
    18. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir, 2020. "Pandemic Economy: The Russian Way," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 7-18.
    19. Michael P Devereux & İrem Güçeri & Martin Simmler & Eddy H F Tam, 2020. "Discretionary fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 225-241.
    20. Darougheh, Saman, 2021. "Dispersed consumption versus compressed output: Assessing the sectoral effects of a pandemic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2018. "The growth and variability of regional taxes: an application to Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 416-429, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang-Tai Lee & Jin-Li Hu & Ming-Hsin Kung, 2022. "Economic Resilience in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Across-Economy Comparison," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    2. M. Yu. Malkina, 2022. "The Resilience of the Russian Regional Economies to the 2020 Pandemic," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 309-320, September.
    3. Mariusz Zieliński, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Markets of the Visegrad Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Damilola Giwa-Daramola & Harvey S. James, 2023. "COVID-19 and Microeconomic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study on Ethiopian and Nigerian Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    6. Anastasios Kitsos & André Carrascal-Incera & Raquel Ortega-Argilés, 2019. "The Role of Embeddedness on Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Jacopo Canello & Francesco Vidoli, 2020. "Investigating space‐time patterns of regional industrial resilience through a micro‐level approach: An application to the Italian wine industry," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 653-676, September.
    8. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Does related variety affect regional resilience? New evidence from Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 657-680, June.
    9. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    10. ORIHARA Masanori & SUZUKI Takafumi, 2021. "Windfalls? Costs and Benefits of Investment Tax Incentives due to Financial Constraints," Discussion papers 21087, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Fabio Mazzola & Iolanda Cascio & Rosalia Epifanio & Giuseppe Giacomo, 2018. "Territorial capital and growth over the Great Recession: a local analysis for Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 411-441, March.
    12. repec:aei:journl:y:2020:id:1008578025 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Shanshan Ye & Mingming Cao, 2023. "The Impact of Industrial Linkage Structures on Urban Economic Resilience in China in the Context of the COVID-19 Shock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    14. Liangang Li & Pingyu Zhang & Chengxin Wang, 2022. "What Affects the Economic Resilience of China’s Yellow River Basin Amid Economic Crisis—From the Perspective of Spatial Heterogeneity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Michele Costa & Flavio Delbono, 2021. "The Italian Geography of Regional Resilience: The Role of Cooperative Firms," Working Papers wp1166, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    16. Clemens, Jeffrey & Veuger, Stan, 2021. "Politics and the distribution of federal funds: Evidence from federal legislation in response to COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Doris Prammer, 2021. "Unprecedented fiscal (re)actions to ease the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20-Q1/, pages 153-173.
    18. George J. XANTHOS & Evangelos N. DULUFAKIS, 2023. "Measurement Approaches Of Regional Economic Resilience: A Literature Review," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 47-59, June.
    19. Agrawal, David R. & Shybalkina, Iuliia, 2023. "Online shopping can redistribute local tax revenue from urban to rural America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    20. Jesse Sutton & Godwin Arku & Richard Sadler & John Hutchenreuther & Michael Buzzelli, 2024. "Practitioners' ability to retool the economy: The role of agency in local economic resilience to plant closures in Ontario," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), March.
    21. R. Arbolino & U. Marani, 2018. "Economic Crisis, Resilience and New Regional Dualisms," Rivista economica del Mezzogiorno, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1-2, pages 97-116.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    2020 pandemic; tax revenues; region; resilience; factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:239-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Adam P. Balcerzak to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.