Makroekonomiczne determinanty bezrobocia na przykladzie Polski i Stanow Zjednoczonych w latach 2000–2016[Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment on the example of Poland and United States in years 2000–2016]

Motivation: The motivation for choosing a subject was high importance of long-term unemployment for economic growth and methods of unemployed profiling to prevent that phenomenon. Aim: The aim of the article was the selection of macroeconomic determinants of long-term unemployment in Poland and the United States. The analysis was also focused on discussing the possibility of combating long-term unemployment through the unemployed profiling and the current results of this method in Poland. Results: The following macroeconomic variables had a statistically significant impact on the unemployment rate: the unemployment rate in the previous quarter, real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, growth rate for export share in GDP and investments. In most cases, this influence was in line with economic theory. In Poland, the unemployment rate is most responsive to changes in GDP in the opposite direction. It can be expected that stimulating economic growth or taking actions supporting it in the long run, should translate into a decrease in the unemployment rate in Poland. In the United States, growth rate for export share in GDP and investments had a significant impact on unemployment rate.