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Metal Returns, Stock Returns and Stock Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Zeballos

    ( Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, Brazil)

  • Carlos del Carpio

    ( EFL Global LTD, Lima, Peru)

Abstract

Given the extensive participation of mining stocks in the Peruvian stock market, the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) provides an ideal setting for exploring both the impact of metal returns on mining stock returns and stock market volatility, and the comovements between mining stock returns and metal returns. This research is a first attempt to explore these issues using international metal prices and the prices of the most important mining stocks on the BVL and the IGBVL index. To achieve this, we use univariate GARCH models to model individual volatilities, and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method and multivariate GARCH models with time-varying correlations to model comovements in returns. We found that Peruvian mining stock volatilities mimic the behavior of metal volatilities and that there are important correlation levels between metals and mining stock returns. In addition, we found time-varying correlations with distinctive behavior in different periods, with rises potentially related to international and local historical events.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Zeballos & Carlos del Carpio, 2015. "Metal Returns, Stock Returns and Stock Market Volatility," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 38(75), pages 101-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2015:i:75:p:101-122
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    File URL: https://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/13734/14358
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maquieira, Carlos P. & Espinosa-Méndez, Christian & Gahona-Flores, Orlando, 2023. "How does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impact copper-firms stock returns? International evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Tursoy, Turgut & Faisal, Faisal & Berk, Niyazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "How do Stock Prices and Metal Prices Contribute to Economic Activity in Turkey? The Importance of Linear and Non-linear ARDL," MPRA Paper 88899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mauricio Zevallos & Fernanda Villarreal & Carlos Del Carpio & Omar Abbara, 2017. "Metal Prices and International Market Risk in the Peruvian Stock Market," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 40(79), pages 87-104.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Comovements; Peruvian stock market.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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