Impact of climate change on farmers’ crop production in China: a panel Ricardian analysis

The impact of climate change on crop production remains a major concern around the world, as cropping is directly linked to global food security. Therefore, accurately estimating the effects on farmers’ crop production is crucial for effective adaptation strategies. We employ the panel Ricardian model to estimate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on crop net revenue, using a 17-year panel dataset that includes ~180,000 households in China. Our analysis accounts for market price differences and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and farmers’ adaptation to climate change. We found that temperature and precipitation significantly impact crop net revenue, with farmers’ adaptations partially mitigating these effects. The effects of temperature change on crop net revenue vary among different seasons, with the negative consequences of maximum daily temperature (Tmax) concentrated in spring and autumn, and the positive effects of minimum daily temperature (Tmin) only being seen in autumn. Additionally, precipitation negatively impacts crops mainly in autumn and winter. Climate change impact is more pronounced for cash crops compared to grain crops and for large farms relative to small farms. The negative effects of spring temperature are concentrated in northern regions, whereas southern regions are more sensitive to temperature and precipitation in autumn. Furthermore, simulations of future climate patterns suggest that the impact of Tmax on crop production is decreasing, while the negative effect of increasing Tmin is increasing.