IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v12y2025i1d10.1057_s41599-024-04078-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The chain reaction of carbon emission trading policy in efficiency and rebound: evidence from spatial perspective in China

Author

Listed:
  • Huan Wang

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Yangyang Shen

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Ting Luo

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Fang Wang

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Yunqiang Liu

    (Sichuan Agricultural University)

Abstract

Evaluating and improving environmental policies are significantly impacted by the question of whether increased energy efficiency results in an energy rebound effect. Utilizing carbon emission trading policies (CETP) as a quasi-natural experiment, this study created a spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) model with an endogenous spatio-temporal weight matrix. The analysis applied Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2018 to assess the direct and spatial spillover effects of CETP on total factor carbon emissions efficiency (TCEE). On this premise, it is further explored to see if CETP causes the energy rebound (ER) effect via TCEE. It revealed that CETP exhibited positive spatial spillover effects on TCEE. Specifically, CETP was observed to enhance TCEE in pilot areas through green innovation (GI) but impede TCEE in neighboring regions due to siphoning and pollution haven effects. Further research, however, revealed that the CETP increased the ER in the pilot areas by improving the TCEE, causing the policy to fall into the trap of ineffective emission reduction, but it had a warning effect on the nearby areas. This study is of great significance for improving the emission reduction policy system and promoting the “dual carbon” goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Huan Wang & Yangyang Shen & Ting Luo & Fang Wang & Yunqiang Liu, 2025. "The chain reaction of carbon emission trading policy in efficiency and rebound: evidence from spatial perspective in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04078-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04078-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-04078-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-04078-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Ruguo & Luo, Ming & Zhang, Pengfei, 2016. "A study on evolution of energy intensity in China with heterogeneity and rebound effect," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 159-169.
    2. Yang, Xinyu & Jiang, Ping & Pan, Yao, 2020. "Does China's carbon emission trading policy have an employment double dividend and a Porter effect?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Jiang, Ben & Du, Mingze & Wang, Dehui, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading, industrial structure upgrading and green development: Excess benefits of combined actions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 480-501.
    4. Figus, Gioele & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2020. "Do sticky energy prices impact the time paths of rebound effects associated with energy efficiency actions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Yuan, Zhen & Xu, Jie & Li, Bing & Yao, Tingting, 2022. "Limits of technological progress in controlling energy consumption: Evidence from the energy rebound effects across China's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    6. Adediran, Idris A. & Swaray, Raymond, 2023. "Carbon trading amidst global uncertainty: The role of policy and geopolitical uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Bardaka, Eleni & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2018. "Causal identification of transit-induced gentrification and spatial spillover effects: The case of the Denver light rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-31.
    8. Qingsong Wang & Zhenlei Gao & Hongrui Tang & Xueliang Yuan & Jian Zuo, 2018. "Exploring the Direct Rebound Effect of Energy Consumption: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Turner, Karen, 2009. "Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 648-666, September.
    10. Du, Kerui & Liu, Xueyue & Zhao, Cheng, 2023. "Environmental regulation mitigates energy rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Zhao, Xiaoli & Yin, Haitao & Zhao, Yue, 2015. "Impact of environmental regulations on the efficiency and CO2 emissions of power plants in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 238-247.
    12. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Liu, Pei-Zhi & Narayan, Seema, 2024. "Is the carbon emission trading scheme conducive to promoting energy transition? Some empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Nachtigall, Daniel & Venmans, Frank, 2023. "The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    14. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. You, Jianmin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "How heterogeneous technological progress promotes industrial structure upgrading and industrial carbon efficiency? Evidence from China's industries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    16. Shaolong Zeng & Qinyi Fu & Fazli Haleem & Yang Shen & Weibin Peng & Man Ji & Yilong Gong & Yilong Xu, 2024. "China’s carbon trading pilot policy, economic stability, and high-quality economic development," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Li, Changsheng & Qi, Yaping & Liu, Shaohui & Wang, Xu, 2022. "Do carbon ETS pilots improve cities' green total factor productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Jin, Taeyoung & Kim, Jinsoo, 2019. "A new approach for assessing the macroeconomic growth energy rebound effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 192-200.
    19. Lee, Hwarang & Kang, Sung Won & Koo, Yoonmo, 2020. "A hybrid energy system model to evaluate the impact of climate policy on the manufacturing sector: Adoption of energy-efficient technologies and rebound effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    20. Tone, Kaoru, 2002. "A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 32-41, November.
    21. Zhang, Shengling & Wang, Yao & Hao, Yu & Liu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Shooting two hawks with one arrow: Could China's emission trading scheme promote green development efficiency and regional carbon equality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    22. Jurate Jaraite-Ka~ukauske and Corrado Di Maria, 2016. "Did the EU ETS Make a Difference? An Empirical Assessment Using Lithuanian Firm-Level Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    23. Wang, Guofeng & Deng, Xiangzheng & Wang, Jingyu & Zhang, Fan & Liang, Shiqi, 2019. "Carbon emission efficiency in China: A spatial panel data analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    24. Liu, Hongxun & Du, Kerui & Li, Jianglong, 2019. "An improved approach to estimate direct rebound effect by incorporating energy efficiency: A revisit of China's industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 720-730.
    25. Chen, Yang & Mu, Huaizhong, 2023. "Natural resources, carbon trading policies and total factor carbon efficiency: A new direction for China’s economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    26. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    27. Cole, Matthew A. & Fredriksson, Per G., 2009. "Institutionalized pollution havens," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1239-1256, February.
    28. Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Yildirim, Julide & Connor, Peter M., 2015. "Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-429.
    29. Gao, Yuning & Li, Meng & Xue, Jinjun & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Evaluation of effectiveness of China's carbon emissions trading scheme in carbon mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    30. Zakeri, Atefe & Dehghanian, Farzad & Fahimnia, Behnam & Sarkis, Joseph, 2015. "Carbon pricing versus emissions trading: A supply chain planning perspective," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 197-205.
    31. Zimmermann, Michel & Vöhringer, Frank & Thalmann, Philippe & Moreau, Vincent, 2021. "Do rebound effects matter for Switzerland? Assessing the effectiveness of industrial energy efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Shao, Xiaoyu & He, Yanqiu, 2022. "Policy spillover effect and action mechanism for environmental rights trading on green innovation: Evidence from China's carbon emissions trading policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Liu, Yunqiang & Ye, Deping & Liu, Sha & Wang, Fang & Zeng, Hui & Tang, Hong, 2024. "Whether the agricultural energy rebound offsets the governance effectiveness of the China's natural resource audit policy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    3. Guang Chen & Akira Hibiki, 2022. "Can the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme Influence Industrial Green Production in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Jafari, Mahboubeh & Stern, David I. & Bruns, Stephan B., 2022. "How large is the economy-wide rebound effect in middle income countries? Evidence from Iran," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Hu, Yucai & Li, Ranran & Du, Lei & Ren, Shenggang & Chevallier, Julien, 2022. "Could SO2 and CO2 emissions trading schemes achieve co-benefits of emissions reduction?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Pan Jiang & Mengyue Li & Yuting Zhao & Xiujuan Gong & Ruifeng Jin & Yuhan Zhang & Xue Li & Liang Liu, 2022. "Does Environmental Regulation Improve Carbon Emission Efficiency? Inspection of Panel Data from Inter-Provincial Provinces in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Sheng Xu & Wenran Pan & Demei Wen, 2023. "Do Carbon Emission Trading Schemes Promote the Green Transition of Enterprises? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-28, April.
    8. Chen, Jiandong & Gao, Ming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Cheng, Shulei & Song, Malin, 2021. "An improved decomposition approach toward energy rebound effects in China: Review since 1992," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Miao, Lu, 2023. "The greenhouse gas rebound effect from increased energy efficiency across China's staple crops," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Han, Hongyun & Zhou, Zinan, 2024. "The rebound effect of energy consumption and its determinants in China's agricultural production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    11. Tufan Özsoy, 2024. "The “energy rebound effect” within the framework of environmental sustainability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), March.
    12. Shi Chen & Fu-Wei Huang & Jyh-Horng Lin, 2022. "Borrowing-Firm Emission Trading, Bank Rate-Setting Behavior, and Carbon-Linked Lending under Capital Regulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-14, May.
    13. Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa, 2020. "Energy efficiency promotion backfires under cap-and-trade," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Yizhang He & Wei Song, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Trading Policies on Carbon Emission and Carbon Emission Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Cansino, José M. & Ordóñez, Manuel & Prieto, Manuela, 2022. "Decomposition and measurement of the rebound effect: The case of energy efficiency improvements in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    16. Chen, Zhe & Song, Pei & Wang, Baolu, 2021. "Carbon emissions trading scheme, energy efficiency and rebound effect – Evidence from China's provincial data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Jiang, Ben & Du, Mingze & Wang, Dehui, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading, industrial structure upgrading and green development: Excess benefits of combined actions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 480-501.
    18. Ruijing Zheng & Yu Cheng & Haimeng Liu & Wei Chen & Xiaodong Chen & Yaping Wang, 2022. "The Spatiotemporal Distribution and Drivers of Urban Carbon Emission Efficiency: The Role of Technological Innovation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-22, July.
    19. Gao, Kang & Yuan, Yijun, 2022. "Government intervention, spillover effect and urban innovation performance: Empirical evidence from national innovative city pilot policy in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Sung-Hyun Jun & Jee Young Kim & Hyungna Oh, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of the KETS on GHG reduction in the first phase," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(3), pages 613-638, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04078-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.