Can digital economy truly improve agricultural ecological transformation? New insights from China

As the world’s biggest emitter of carbon, China’s agricultural carbon emissions account for 16 to 17%, with agriculture being the second largest contributor to carbon emissions. The development of the digital economy has brought profound changes to agricultural ecology. Therefore, we utilize China’s data experience to construct an agricultural ecological transformation system by setting up a Super-SBM model. Then, based on a dynamic panel threshold model, we explore the nonlinear impact mechanism of the digital economy on agricultural ecological transformation from a low-carbon innovation perspective. Our results reveal that the overall level of China’s agricultural ecological transformation is not high, but in the long-term posture, it represents a relatively steady upward trend, with a significant “wealth gap” between different regions. It is worth noting that there is a significant threshold effect of low-carbon innovation heterogeneity in the impact mechanism of digital economy on agricultural ecological transformation: under lower low-carbon innovation levels, the development of digital economy is unable to effectively promote agricultural ecological transformation. However, as the level of low-carbon technological innovation increases and exceeds the critical value, it stimulates the driving effect of digital economy to some extent, thereby promoting the improvement of agricultural ecological transformation, presenting a “U” shaped relationship. The paper has clarified the differential “new phenomena” in the process of promoting agricultural ecological transformation, providing new insights for achieving “carbon reduction and economic promotion” in developing countries.