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Feasibility of a Sea Route through the Canadian Arctic

Author

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  • Saran Somanathan

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2G8.)

  • Peter C Flynn

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2G8.)

  • Jozef K Szymanski

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada T6G 2G8)

Abstract

One predicted consequence of global warming is the thinning of Arctic sea ice. This raises the question whether the fabled Northwest Passage can be used for year round ship traffic, and whether the distance saved by using the polar route justifies the incremental investment in ice-breaking ships. A conceptual study using computer simulation was conducted to evaluate the Northwest Passage versus the Panama Canal routes between eastern North America and Japan. Recent historical ice conditions were modelled stochastically to calculate ship transit time. The economic performance was then evaluated by estimating the port-to-port shipping cost component of the overall required freight rate, again using stochastic modelling for a variety of cost factors. The most critical economic variable is the incremental capital cost between an ice capable and a standard Panamax ship. Shipping from St John's Newfoundland to Yokohama is economic through the Northwest Passage even with an incremental capital cost of 80%. Extending the route to New York would make the Northwest Passage non-competitive. We report the sensitivity of the port-to-port shipping cost for a number of economic factors, with capital and fuel cost being the most significant. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2007) 9, 324–334. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100185

Suggested Citation

  • Saran Somanathan & Peter C Flynn & Jozef K Szymanski, 2007. "Feasibility of a Sea Route through the Canadian Arctic," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 9(4), pages 324-334, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:9:y:2007:i:4:p:324-334
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang & Ng, Szu Hui, 2016. "Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 241-249.
    2. Liu, Miaojia & Kronbak, Jacob, 2010. "The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 434-444.
    3. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    4. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    5. Lasserre, Frédéric & Beveridge, Leah & Fournier, Mélanie & Têtu, Pierre-Louis & Huang, Linyan, 2016. "Polar seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners' intentions II," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 105-114.
    6. Heitmann, Nadine & Rehdanz, Katrin & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Determining optimal transit charges: the Kiel Canal in Germany," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 29-42.
    7. Dai, Lei & Jing, Danyue & Hu, Hao & Wang, Zhaojing, 2021. "An environmental and techno-economic analysis of transporting LNG via Arctic route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 56-71.
    8. Jonkeren, Olaf & Jourquin, Bart & Rietveld, Piet, 2011. "Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1007-1019.
    9. Jihong Chen & Theo Notteboom & Xiang Liu & Hang Yu & Nikitas Nikitakos & Chen Yang, 2019. "The Nicaragua Canal: potential impact on international shipping and its attendant challenges," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(1), pages 79-98, March.

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