Integrating gravity models and network analysis in logistical strategic planning: a case of the India Middle-East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

The India Middle-East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was introduced by US President Joe Biden in September 2023 in India, during the G-20 meeting. By creating commercial connections along the southern border of Eurasia, an expanding, multi-faceted IMEC trade corridor has the potential to alter trade patterns between the Middle East, Europe, and the Indian Ocean region. The project’s goal is to build a railway network that would travel via Saudi Arabia and Jordan to connect the United Arab Emirates with Israel and, from there, through a final sea-leg towards the Mediterranean EU ports, notably Piraeus, with continental Europe. Therefore, it is critical to assess trade potential among IMEC countries while paying attention to this corridor's function. Examining IMEC’s function in promoting international trade among initiative stakeholders while taking the geographic context into account, is the objective of this study. The analysis of IMEC members’ historical trends has been attempted as well. To calculate trade potential, a sophisticated gravity model is developed. Since this shows port connections to the hinterland, the integration of GIS-based network analysis; service area modelling; and road density modelling are also undertaken, in our objective to estimate trade potential. By integrating the gravity model (GM) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), it becomes feasible to create visual depictions of the trade potential of IMEC to interested parties. We employ metrics like population, GDP, trade volume, road density per square kilometer, and service coverage as inputs to the GM, spanning from 2000 to 2021. Based on the panel data of a gravity model among IMEC members between 2000 to 2021, and using ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) modelling, our findings indicate that economic improvements in these countries, as well as efforts to decrease distances and improve connectivity among ports, will enhance interaction, as well as the processes of economic, social and political integration amongst them. The corridor also decreases (economic) distances and improves connectivity among ports, enhancing the overall globalization index of a country. Interestingly, we also find that having more than eight official languages has a negative effect on a country’s globalization index.