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A dynamic competition model of regime change

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  • Richard Syms

    (EEE Department, Imperial College London, London, UK)

  • Laszlo Solymar

    (EEE Department, Imperial College London, London, UK)

Abstract

A dynamic competition model for an oppressive government opposed by rebels is proposed, based on coupled differential equations with constant coefficients. Depending on their values, the model allows scenarios representing a stable, oppressive government and violent regime change. With constant coefficients, there can be no limit cycles. However, cycles emerge if rebels and governments switch characteristics after a revolution, if resources change hands and rebel motivations switch from grievance to greed. This mechanism is proposed as an explanation for the establishment of a new repressive regime after the overthrow of a similar regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Syms & Laszlo Solymar, 2015. "A dynamic competition model of regime change," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(11), pages 1939-1947, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:66:y:2015:i:11:p:1939-1947
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