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Modelling the future of the Canadian cardiac surgery workforce using system dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia A Vanderby

    (University of Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan, Canada)

  • Michael W Carter

    (University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

  • Tim Latham

    (Royal Columbian Hospital, British Columbia, Canada)

  • Chris Feindel

    (University Health Network, Ontario, Canada)

Abstract

Due to the high costs and lengthy lead times involved with training health human resources such as physicians and surgeons, combined with the serious burden borne by the general population when health care provider shortages occur, advance planning of resource requirements is critical. This is particularly true in light of current demographic trends and Canada’s ageing population, which will potentially increase demand for health care providers in the future while also leading to the retirement of many of the providers currently practicing. The purpose of this research was to develop a model simulating the workforce within a single specialty at a national level, which includes students training to enter the profession, providing a tool that would help to inform future resource planning. We present the details of this model, developed using system dynamics modelling, and demonstrate it using the example of cardiac surgeons in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia A Vanderby & Michael W Carter & Tim Latham & Chris Feindel, 2014. "Modelling the future of the Canadian cardiac surgery workforce using system dynamics," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(9), pages 1325-1335, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:65:y:2014:i:9:p:1325-1335
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sutton, Claire & Prowse, Julie & McVey, Lynn & Elshehaly, Mai & Neagu, Daniel & Montague, Jane & Alvarado, Natasha & Tissiman, Chris & O'Connell, Kate & Eyers, Emma & Faisal, Muhammad & Randell, Rebec, 2023. "Strategic workforce planning in health and social care – an international perspective: A scoping review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Carter, Michael W. & Busby, Carolyn R., 2023. "How can operational research make a real difference in healthcare? Challenges of implementation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1059-1068.
    3. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    4. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    5. Morgan, Jennifer Sian & Graber-Naidich, Anna, 2019. "Small system dynamics model for alleviating the general practitioners rural care gap in Ontario, Canada," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 10-23.
    6. Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva & Angel Ruiz, 2019. "A Systems Thinking Model to Support Long-Term Bearability of the Healthcare System: The Case of the Province of Quebec," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.
    8. Phanumas Thongsukdee & Waressara Weerawat, 2020. "Physician workforce planning and allocation model using agent‐based modeling: A case study in Thailand," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 1384-1397, November.

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