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The economy and loss given default: evidence from two UK retail lending data sets

Author

Listed:
  • Mindy Leow

    (Credit Research Centre, Business School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK)

  • Christophe Mues

    (School of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK)

  • Lyn Thomas

    (School of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK)

Abstract

Loss given default (LGD) models predict losses as a proportion of the outstanding loan, in the event a debtor goes into default. The literature on corporate sector LGD models suggests LGD is correlated to the economy and so changes in the economy could translate into different predictions of losses. In this work, the role of macroeconomic variables in loan-level retail LGD models is examined by testing the inclusion of macroeconomic variables in two different retail LGD models: a two-stage model for a residential mortgage loans data set and an ordinary least squares model for an unsecured personal loans data set. To improve loan-level predictions of LGD, indicators relating to the macroeconomy are considered with mixed results: the selected macroeconomic variable seemed able to improve the predictive performance of mortgage loan LGD estimates, but not for personal loan LGD. For mortgage loan LGD, interest rate was most beneficial but only predicted better during downturn periods, underestimating LGD during non-downturn periods. For personal loan LGD, only net lending growth is statistically significant but including this variable did not bring any improvement to R2.

Suggested Citation

  • Mindy Leow & Christophe Mues & Lyn Thomas, 2014. "The economy and loss given default: evidence from two UK retail lending data sets," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 363-375, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:65:y:2014:i:3:p:363-375
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Rezazadeh, Hani & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Höchstötter, Markus, 2022. "Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 240-252.
    2. Emily Johnston Ross & Lynn Shibut, 2021. "Loss Given Default, Loan Seasoning and Financial Fragility: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans at Failed Banks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 630-661, November.
    3. Yao, Xiao & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2017. "Enhancing two-stage modelling methodology for loss given default with support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 679-689.
    4. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    5. Nazemi, Abdolreza & Fatemi Pour, Farnoosh & Heidenreich, Konstantin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2017. "Fuzzy decision fusion approach for loss-given-default modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 780-791.
    6. Jonathan Crook & David Edelman, 2014. "Special issue credit risk modelling," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 321-322, March.
    7. Bellotti, Anthony & Brigo, Damiano & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2021. "Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 428-444.
    8. Xia, Yufei & Zhao, Junhao & He, Lingyun & Li, Yinguo & Yang, Xiaoli, 2021. "Forecasting loss given default for peer-to-peer loans via heterogeneous stacking ensemble approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1590-1613.
    9. Distaso, Walter & Roccazzella, Francesco & Vrins, Frédéric, 2023. "Business cycle and realized losses in the consumer credit industry," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    10. Betz, Jennifer & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2018. "Systematic Effects among Loss Given Defaults and their Implications on Downturn Estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 1113-1144.
    11. Thamayanthi Chellathurai, 2017. "Probability Density Of Recovery Rate Given Default Of A Firm’S Debt And Its Constituent Tranches," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-34, June.
    12. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    13. Kellner, Ralf & Nagl, Maximilian & Rösch, Daniel, 2022. "Opening the black box – Quantile neural networks for loss given default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Giuseppe Orlando & Roberta Pelosi, 2020. "Non-Performing Loans for Italian Companies: When Time Matters. An Empirical Research on Estimating Probability to Default and Loss Given Default," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, November.

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