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Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges☆

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  • Alec D Barker

    (George Mason University and Group W Inc., Fairfax, VA, USA)

Abstract

This paper proposes an applied method by which to fuse multiple independently developed scenarios to serve as a basis for strategic studies in the national security operations research community. First, it describes the need to fuse scenarios methodically as a consequence of the evolution of global security conditions and as a matter of logic that might be otherwise overlooked. Second, it proposes applying Structured Scenario Fusion (SSF), a method that uses three stylized tables to systematically and transparently record the process of scenario fusion. Third, it provides an example application set in a hypothetical study of future security conditions in Somalia. It concludes that SSF offers a promising way to improve the pedigree, realism, and logic of assumptions underpinning scenario-based strategic studies, as well as the quality of strategic decisions and plans thereby justified.

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  • Alec D Barker, 2014. "Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges☆," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(11), pages 1726-1734, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:65:y:2014:i:11:p:1726-1734
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