IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v63y2012i8p1021-1033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian policy support for adaptive strategies using computer models for complex physical systems

Author

Listed:
  • D Williamson

    (Durham University, Durham, UK)

  • M Goldstein

    (Durham University, Durham, UK)

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss combining expert knowledge and computer simulators in order to provide decision support for policy makers managing complex physical systems. We allow future states of the complex system to be viewed after initial policy is made, and for those states to influence revision of policy. The potential for future observations and intervention impacts heavily on optimal policy for today and this is handled within our approach. We show how deriving policy dependent system uncertainty using computer models leads to an intractable backwards induction problem for the resulting decision tree. We introduce an algorithm for emulating an upper bound on our expected loss surface for all possible policies and discuss how this might be used in policy support. To illustrate our methodology, we look at choosing an optimal CO2 abatement strategy, combining an intermediate complexity climate model and an economic utility model with climate data.

Suggested Citation

  • D Williamson & M Goldstein, 2012. "Bayesian policy support for adaptive strategies using computer models for complex physical systems," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 63(8), pages 1021-1033, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:63:y:2012:i:8:p:1021-1033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v63/n8/pdf/jors2011110a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v63/n8/full/jors2011110a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris & Stephanie M. Haywood & Matthew C. Hort & Jim Q. Smith, 2019. "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 9-16, January.
    2. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris, 2018. "Decision Analysis and Political Processes," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 208-222, December.
    3. Rebecca E. Atanga & Edward L. Boone & Ryad A. Ghanam & Ben Stewart-Koster, 2021. "Optimal Sampling Regimes for Estimating Population Dynamics," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-17, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:63:y:2012:i:8:p:1021-1033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.