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Incorporating fractal concepts into equations of attrition for military conflicts

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Listed:
  • G C McIntosh

    (Defence Technology Agency)

  • M K Lauren

    (Defence Technology Agency)

Abstract

Using an agent-based model as a ‘battlefield laboratory’, we explore equations of combat attrition which extend beyond the conventional Lanchester equations and which endeavour to encapsulate the more complex aspects of warfare. Our approach compares predictions from candidate attrition equations with casualty data generated artificially from an agent-based model. For situations where the initial regimented structure of the fighting forces breaks down, introducing fractal concepts into the attrition equations proves effective at encapsulating complex aspects of the battle; with details in the time dependence of the casualty data able to be reproduced. Furthermore, measuring the fractal dimension of a fighting force's spatial distribution on the battlefield provides a sensitive probe of the combatants’ behaviour. Precise times at which key events occur during a battle can be pinpointed. This study furthers the body of work which considers warfare as a complex adaptive system and where fractal-like structures are expected to emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • G C McIntosh & M K Lauren, 2008. "Incorporating fractal concepts into equations of attrition for military conflicts," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(5), pages 703-713, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:59:y:2008:i:5:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602383
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David L. Bitters, 1995. "Efficient concentration of forces, or how to fight outnumbered and win," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 397-418, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. W Hobbs & N J Curtis, 2011. "Theory and application of perceptual positions to data collection and analysis in military environments," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1753-1764, September.

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