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Goal programming and cognitive biases in decision-making

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  • T J Stewart

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

The study of cognitive biases in decision-making has largely arisen within the context of the subjective expected utility school of decision analysis. Many of the behavioural patterns that have been discovered do seem to be relevant to broader areas of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this paper, we look specifically at the judgemental inputs required in implementing goal programming (GP) models. The potential relevance of some of the known cognitive biases in this context are identified, and their impact studied by means of simulation experiments. It is found, inter alia, that biases due to anchoring and adjustment and to avoidance of sure loss can lead to substantial degradation in the performance of GP algorithms. Suggestions for practice and recommendations for follow-up research are derived from the simulation results.

Suggested Citation

  • T J Stewart, 2005. "Goal programming and cognitive biases in decision-making," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(10), pages 1166-1175, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:56:y:2005:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601948
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stewart, Theodor J., 1999. "Evaluation and refinement of aspiration-based methods in MCDM," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 643-652, March.
    2. Theodor J. Stewart, 1988. "Experience with prototype multicriteria decision support systems for pelagic fish quota determination," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 719-731, December.
    3. M Bertomeu & C Romero, 2002. "Forest management optimisation models and habitat diversity: a goal programming approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(11), pages 1175-1184, November.
    4. Tamiz, Mehrdad & Jones, Dylan & Romero, Carlos, 1998. "Goal programming for decision making: An overview of the current state-of-the-art," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 569-581, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Jenytin, Cosmo, 2020. "On preference elicitation processes which mitigate the accumulation of biases in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 201-210.

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    decision analysis; goal programming;

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