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Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services

Author

Listed:
  • P R Harper

    (School of Mathematics, University of Southampton)

  • J Yates

    (Eastern Region)

  • H Wilderspin

    (Eastern Region)

  • A K Shahani

    (School of Mathematics, University of Southampton)

  • C Bowie

    (College of Medicine)

  • C Duff

    (Eastern Region)

Abstract

The National Service Framework (NSF) for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), recently published by the Department of Health, specifies Government target rates for different cardiac procedures. This paper describes how the Eastern Regional Office of the Department of Health, with current rates approximately half the NSF target levels, designed a strategy to plan rationally for increases in service provision. A bottom-up needs assessment model was used to predict the population requirements for these CHD procedures and accounts for the effects of demographic change, anticipated reduction in the incidence of heart disease due to primary prevention programmes and the expected improvement in cardiology and cardiac surgery technologies. It is predicted that excess procedures would be required across the region over the next 20 years, and so a geographical access model was developed and used to recommend the building and location of a new tertiary cardiac centre to meet the increased demand. These tools have successfully been used in the Eastern Region to plan long-term increases in CHD rates in order to achieve Department of Health targets.

Suggested Citation

  • P R Harper & J Yates & H Wilderspin & A K Shahani & C Bowie & C Duff, 2004. "Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(5), pages 529-534, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:5:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601644
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601644
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Staff, Marta & Mustafee, Navonil & Shenker, Natalie & Weaver, Gillian, 2024. "Ensuring neonatal human milk provision: A framework for estimating potential demand for donor human milk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(2), pages 642-655.
    2. K. Cooper & S. Brailsford & R. Davies & J. Raftery, 2006. "A review of health care models for coronary heart disease interventions," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 311-324, November.
    3. P R Harper & S Phillips & J E Gallagher, 2005. "Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(2), pages 134-143, February.

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