Providing operational analysis to a peace support operation: the Kosovo experience

The Operational Analysis (OA) Branch of the HQ ARRC deployed into Kosovo concurrently with the withdrawal of Serbian forces. The authors, all members of the Operational Analysis Branch, were responsible for providing general scientific, and more specifically Operational Research, advice to General Jackson, Commander of the Kosovo Force. This paper outlines the work done by OA Branch leading up to, and during the challenging period from the first deployment of troops into Kosovo in June 1999 to October 1999. The work of the branch was in two major sections; the first, support to returning Kosovo to normality and the second, to monitor the compliance of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) with the undertaking to demilitarise. OA Branch provided not only the military with work to quantify the return to normality, but also worked with and provided data to aid agencies. The work ranged from assessments of damage to the infrastructure of Kosovo, particularly the housing, through to the monitoring of crime. The population estimates produced by the branch corrected the emotive image being produced in the media, and became the subject of an international press conference. OA Branch's weekly Compliance Monitoring report was the authoritative document for checking on the progress of the UCK towards demilitarisation; this coupled with work on trends in violence were regularly briefed to the KFOR Commander.