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Detecting shifts in the mean of a simulation output process

Author

Listed:
  • S Robinson

    (Warwick Business School, University of Warwick)

  • R J Brooks

    (Lancaster University)

  • C D Lewis

    (Aston Business School, Aston University)

Abstract

The application of the correct simulation output analysis technique requires a knowledge of the model's behaviour. Traditionally, only two types of model behaviour are discussed for discrete event simulations: transient and steady state. In this paper, a third type of behaviour, denoted shifting steady state, is considered in which the model passes through successive periods of different steady states. A heuristic technique for identifying the shifts in the mean of a time series is applied to the output data from simulation models with known shifting steady-state behaviour in order to test its effectiveness in detecting the shifts. The heuristic performs well, indicating that it may be a valuable additional technique for output analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • S Robinson & R J Brooks & C D Lewis, 2002. "Detecting shifts in the mean of a simulation output process," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(5), pages 559-573, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:53:y:2002:i:5:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601323
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601323
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