IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v53y2002i1d10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using a Markov process model of an association football match to determine the optimal timing of substitution and tactical decisions

Author

Listed:
  • N Hirotsu

    (Lancaster University)

  • M Wright

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

A football match is modelled as a four-state Markov process. A log-linear model, fed by real data, is used to estimate transition probabilities by means of the maximum likelihood method. This makes it possible to estimate the probability distributions of goals scored and the expected number of league points gained, from any position in a match, for any given set of transition probabilities and hence in principle for any match. This approach is developed in order to estimate the optimal time to change tactics using dynamic programming, either by making a substitution or by some other conscious change of plan. A simple example of this approach is included as an illustration.

Suggested Citation

  • N Hirotsu & M Wright, 2002. "Using a Markov process model of an association football match to determine the optimal timing of substitution and tactical decisions," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(1), pages 88-96, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:53:y:2002:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601254
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601254
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601254?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hirotsu Nobuyoshi & Wright Mike B, 2006. "Modeling Tactical Changes of Formation in Association Football as a Zero-Sum Game," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Gong, Bingnan & Zhou, Changjing & Gómez, Miguel-Ángel & Buldú, J.M., 2023. "Identifiability of Chinese football teams: A complex networks approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Tunaru Radu S & Viney Howard P, 2010. "Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:53:y:2002:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.