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Evaluation of strategies for Downs Syndrome screening

Author

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  • M Utley

    (University College London)

  • S Gallivan

    (University College London)

Abstract

Downs Syndrome is a chromosomal disorder affecting approximately 1 in 700 live births in unscreened populations. Definitive prenatal diagnostic tests are available but they are invasive and can cause miscarriages. Non-invasive tests earlier in pregnancy have the potential for identifying pregnancies that are at sufficient risk to warrant the invasive diagnostic test being performed. A model has been developed to evaluate possible screening strategies. Although at first sight this problem seems amenable to traditional decision analysis, our alternative method has proved more fruitful. The method can be used to derive closed form analytical expressions for a number of relevant outcome measures. This modelling allows the study of the effect of the timings of the two tests within pregnancy, optimisation of screening options and investigation of effects related to diagnostic accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • M Utley & S Gallivan, 2000. "Evaluation of strategies for Downs Syndrome screening," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(3), pages 272-277, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:51:y:2000:i:3:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2600867
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600867
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    Cited by:

    1. Steve Gallivan & Mark Jit & Martin Utley, 2006. "A stochastic model to evaluate options for antenatal genetic screening," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-124, May.

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