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Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

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  • Evan Tanner
  • Issouf Samake

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries—Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus required to keep the debt-GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50, 25, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than do frameworks currently in use. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 149–182; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450029; published online 12 February 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:149-182
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    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    4. Tielens, J. & van Aarle, B. & Van Hove, J., 2014. "Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal, Ireland and Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    5. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret-Onorato, 2016. "Power-Law Distribution in the Debt-to-Fiscal Revenue Ratio: Empirical Evidence and a Theoretical Model," Working Papers halshs-01357797, HAL.
    6. Togan Eğrican, Aslı & Caner, Selçuk & Togan, Sübidey, 2022. "Reforming public debt governance in Turkey to reach debt sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1057-1076.
    7. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
    8. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2013/027, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pourmohammad Gelsefidi , Seyed Hamid & Tayyebnia , Ali & Mehrara , Mohsen & Amirian , Roodabeh, 2018. "Fiscal versus Monetary Dominance: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 13(3), pages 375-400, July.
    10. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    11. Kenta Inoue, 2014. "Is Correlation Puzzle Really Puzzling? Reassessing Motives Of Foreign Asset Holdings By Us Investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 160-172, March.
    12. István Ábel & Ádám Kóbor, 2022. "Macroeconomic Components of the Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Hungary," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    13. Dufrénot, Gilles & Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2019. "Power-law distribution in the external debt-to-fiscal revenue ratios: Empirical evidence and a theoretical model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 341-359.
    14. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2011. "Növekedés, deficit és adósság - fenntartható keretben [Growth, deficit and debt - in a sustainable framework]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 511-528.
    15. Betty C. Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 2010-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    16. Murat Taşdemir & Abdullah Yalama, 2014. "Volatility Spillover Effects in Interregional Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Brazil and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 190-202, March.
    17. Varun Chotia, 2019. "The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Economic Growth On Debt: Evidence From India," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(222), pages 63-80, July – Se.
    18. Khansa Zaman & Muhammad Saeed Rana & Umer Iftikhar, 2019. "A Multilevel Analysis of Job Demands and Intention to Resign Through Perceived Service Recovery Performance," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 67-82, June.
    19. Muhammad Jalib Sikandar & Fazale Wahid, 2019. "Debt and Economic Growth of Pakistan; Role of Uncertain Economic and Political Conditions," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 11(2), pages 83-106, June.
    20. Viviane Luporini, 2014. "Sustainability Of Brazilian Fiscalpolicy, Once Again: Corrective Policy Response Over Time," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 064, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Lawrence Ogbeifun & Olatunji Shobande, 2020. "Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.

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